Target Price Playground
WMT
$108.09
๐ข
WMT IV: 25.9% โ LOW
(-36.6% vs 30d avg of 40.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $105 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $110 ยท Dec '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.52 ยท ฮ -0.51
SHORT PUT ยท $105 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.35 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If WMT hits $105 by Nov 20: the diagonal put spread returns +$279 (88.1%) on $317 risked, vs $-309 (-2.9%) for 100 shares on $10,809. Options give 30.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if WMT is at $105. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if WMT hits $105 by Nov 20
+$279
+88.1% on $317 risked
Max Profit
+$275
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$317
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$109.67
+1.46% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
82%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-14.4 / 0.69 / 4.15
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| WMT Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $86 (-20%) | +$145 | +$150 | +$149 | +$146 |
| $92 (-15%) | +$137 | +$151 | +$160 | +$150 |
| $97 (-10%) | +$114 | +$137 | +$168 | +$173 |
| $103 (-5%) | +$69 | +$94 | +$139 | +$251 |
| $105 (-3%) โ target | +$45 | +$67 | +$109 | +$313 |
| $108 (0%) โ spot | +$7 | +$24 | +$54 | +$122 |
| $110 (+2%) | -$20 | -$9 | +$9 | +$13 |
| $113 (+5%) | -$63 | -$61 | -$63 | -$112 |
| $119 (+10%) | -$132 | -$144 | -$170 | -$237 |
| $124 (+15%) | -$191 | -$210 | -$243 | -$291 |
| $130 (+20%) | -$236 | -$256 | -$284 | -$310 |
Uses WMT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.