Target Price Playground
WMT
$108.09
๐ข
WMT IV: 25.9% โ LOW
(-36.6% vs 30d avg of 40.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $120 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $108.09 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $105 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.35 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If WMT hits $120 by Nov 20: the protective put returns +$856 (7.7%) on $11,144 risked, vs +$1,191 (11.0%) for 100 shares on $10,809. Options give 0.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if WMT is at $120. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if WMT hits $120 by Nov 20
+$856
+7.7% on $11,144 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$644
Put floors you at $105
Break-even
$111.44
+3.1% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
38%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
63.72 / -3.43 / 17.66
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| WMT Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $86 (-20%) | -$692 | -$688 | -$672 | -$644 |
| $92 (-15%) | -$626 | -$649 | -$662 | -$644 |
| $97 (-10%) | -$496 | -$549 | -$612 | -$644 |
| $103 (-5%) | -$281 | -$356 | -$461 | -$644 |
| $106 (-2%) | -$110 | -$189 | -$301 | -$551 |
| $108 (0%) โ spot | +$22 | -$57 | -$165 | -$335 |
| $110 (+2%) | +$166 | +$91 | -$8 | -$119 |
| $113 (+5%) | +$405 | +$338 | +$259 | +$205 |
| $119 (+10%) | +$850 | +$803 | +$759 | +$746 |
| $120 (+11%) โ target | +$947 | +$903 | +$866 | +$856 |
| $124 (+15%) | +$1,337 | +$1,308 | +$1,289 | +$1,286 |
| $130 (+20%) | +$1,851 | +$1,835 | +$1,827 | +$1,827 |
Uses WMT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.