Target Price Playground
WMT
$113.90
๐ข
WMT IV: 27.7% โ LOW
(-39.6% vs 30d avg of 45.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $125 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
69d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $113.9 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $125 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.9 ยท ฮ 0.25
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If WMT hits $125 by Sep 18: the covered call returns +$1,300 (11.6%) on $11,200 risked, vs +$1,110 (9.7%) for 100 shares on $11,390. Options give 1.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (69 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if WMT is at $125. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if WMT hits $125 by Sep 18
+$1,300
+11.6% on $11,200 risked
Max Profit
+$1,300
If the stock โฅ $125 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$11,200
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$112.00
-1.67% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
45%
IV-implied, 69d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
75.35 / 3.28 / -14.13
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| WMT Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $91 (-20%) | -$2,092 | -$2,089 | -$2,088 | -$2,088 |
| $97 (-15%) | -$1,534 | -$1,522 | -$1,519 | -$1,519 |
| $103 (-10%) | -$994 | -$965 | -$950 | -$949 |
| $108 (-5%) | -$492 | -$433 | -$390 | -$380 |
| $112 (-2%) | -$216 | -$137 | -$65 | -$38 |
| $114 (0%) โ spot | -$46 | +$47 | +$141 | +$190 |
| $116 (+2%) | +$113 | +$219 | +$335 | +$418 |
| $120 (+5%) | +$328 | +$449 | +$595 | +$760 |
| $125 (+10%) โ target | +$606 | +$741 | +$912 | +$1,300 |
| $131 (+15%) | +$832 | +$963 | +$1,121 | +$1,300 |
| $137 (+20%) | +$978 | +$1,092 | +$1,214 | +$1,300 |
Uses WMT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.