Target Price Playground
XEL
$79.82
🟢
XEL IV: 21.6% — LOW
(-49.8% vs 30d avg of 42.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $84 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
SHORT PUT · $73 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $0.45 · Δ -0.13
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Cash-Secured Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If XEL hits $84 by Dec 18: the cash-secured put returns +$45 (0.6%) on $-45 credit (max loss $7,255), vs +$418 (5.2%) for 100 shares on $7,982. Options give 0.1× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if XEL is at $84. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if XEL hits $84 by Dec 18
+$45
+0.6% on $7,255 max loss
Max Profit
+$45
If the stock ≥ $73 at expiry
Max Loss
−$7,255
If stock → $0 after assignment
Break-even
$72.55
-9.11% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
55%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
12.67 / 1.37 / -6.02
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| XEL Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $64 (-20%) | -$844 | -$847 | -$855 | -$869 |
| $68 (-15%) | -$503 | -$484 | -$468 | -$470 |
| $72 (-10%) | -$243 | -$206 | -$156 | -$71 |
| $76 (-5%) | -$81 | -$45 | +$0 | +$45 |
| $78 (-2%) | -$25 | +$3 | +$32 | +$45 |
| $80 (0%) ← spot | -$0 | +$21 | +$40 | +$45 |
| $81 (+2%) | +$16 | +$32 | +$43 | +$45 |
| $84 (+5%) ← target | +$32 | +$41 | +$45 | +$45 |
| $88 (+10%) | +$42 | +$44 | +$45 | +$45 |
| $92 (+15%) | +$44 | +$45 | +$45 | +$45 |
| $96 (+20%) | +$45 | +$45 | +$45 | +$45 |
Uses XEL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.