Target Price Playground
XEL
$79.82
🟢
XEL IV: 21.6% — LOW
(-49.8% vs 30d avg of 42.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $76 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $80 · Jan '27
Qty 1 · Premium $3.5 · Δ -0.53
SHORT PUT · $76 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $1.07 · Δ -0.25
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If XEL hits $76 by Dec 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$177 (73.1%) on $243 risked, vs $-382 (-4.8%) for 100 shares on $7,982. Options give 15.2× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if XEL is at $76. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if XEL hits $76 by Dec 18
+$177
+73.1% on $243 risked
Max Profit
+$170
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
−$243
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$78.54
-1.61% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
58%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-27.82 / 0.25 / 5.2
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| XEL Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $64 (-20%) | +$128 | +$130 | +$129 | +$129 |
| $68 (-15%) | +$123 | +$130 | +$133 | +$131 |
| $72 (-10%) | +$99 | +$115 | +$136 | +$142 |
| $76 (-5%) ← target | +$42 | +$59 | +$87 | +$200 |
| $78 (-2%) | +$0 | +$11 | +$28 | +$49 |
| $80 (0%) ← spot | -$32 | -$28 | -$23 | -$37 |
| $81 (+2%) | -$64 | -$66 | -$73 | -$104 |
| $84 (+5%) | -$110 | -$119 | -$137 | -$173 |
| $88 (+10%) | -$170 | -$184 | -$203 | -$225 |
| $92 (+15%) | -$208 | -$219 | -$231 | -$240 |
| $96 (+20%) | -$228 | -$235 | -$240 | -$243 |
Uses XEL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.