Target Price Playground
XEL
$79.82
🟢
XEL IV: 21.6% — LOW
(-49.8% vs 30d avg of 42.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $89 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $80 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $2.91 · Δ 0.47
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If XEL hits $89 by Dec 18: the long call returns +$609 (209.3%) on $291 risked, vs +$918 (11.5%) for 100 shares on $7,982. Options give 18.2× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if XEL is at $89. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if XEL hits $89 by Dec 18
+$609
+209.3% on $291 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
−$291
Premium paid
Break-even
$82.91
+3.87% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
18%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
46.56 / -2.93 / 11.49
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| XEL Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $64 (-20%) | -$290 | -$291 | -$291 | -$291 |
| $68 (-15%) | -$283 | -$289 | -$291 | -$291 |
| $72 (-10%) | -$252 | -$274 | -$289 | -$291 |
| $76 (-5%) | -$168 | -$213 | -$260 | -$291 |
| $78 (-2%) | -$79 | -$134 | -$201 | -$291 |
| $80 (0%) ← spot | -$1 | -$59 | -$133 | -$291 |
| $81 (+2%) | +$92 | +$34 | -$39 | -$149 |
| $84 (+5%) | +$256 | +$202 | +$142 | +$90 |
| $88 (+10%) | +$582 | +$544 | +$509 | +$489 |
| $89 (+12%) ← target | +$689 | +$656 | +$627 | +$609 |
| $92 (+15%) | +$950 | +$925 | +$904 | +$888 |
| $96 (+20%) | +$1,339 | +$1,319 | +$1,303 | +$1,287 |
Uses XEL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.