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WMT Covered Call Analysis: Proceed With Caution Weak · 55/100
Walmart Inc. (Consumer Defensive) · $111.20 ·
Analysis generated Jul 31, 2026 ·
Data as of market close Jul 31
Quick Take
WMT is trading at $111.20 with RSI at 44 (neutral territory). Options IV is at 26% — 45% below its 30-day average of 47%. Neither RSI nor IV strongly favor selling calls right now. Consider waiting for better conditions or using a different strategy.
Technical Signals
RSI (14)
44
IV Today
25.6%
IV vs 30d Avg
-45%
MACD
bullish
ADX
18
MFI
38
The Setup
WMT Covered Call
LONG STOCK
100 shares @ $111.2
SHORT CALL
$120 Sep '26 · $1.87/sh
Net Cost
$10,933
Max Profit
+$1,067
Break-even
$109.33
Projected P&L at Target
+$1,067
(9.8%)
P&L at Expiry
P&L Scenarios
What happens at different WMT prices by expiry:
| WMT Price | Today | Aug 17 | Sep 2 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $89 (-20%) | -$2,038 | -$2,037 | -$2,037 | -$2,037 |
| $95 (-15%) | -$1,486 | -$1,482 | -$1,481 | -$1,481 |
| $100 (-10%) | -$948 | -$932 | -$925 | -$925 |
| $106 (-5%) | -$442 | -$402 | -$374 | -$369 |
| $109 (-2%) | -$166 | -$106 | -$53 | -$35 |
| $111 (0%) ← now | +$3 | +$76 | +$149 | +$187 |
| $113 (+2%) | +$158 | +$242 | +$337 | +$409 |
| $117 (+5%) | +$363 | +$461 | +$581 | +$743 |
| $120 (+8%) ← target | +$527 | +$631 | +$764 | +$1,067 |
| $122 (+10%) | +$625 | +$729 | +$860 | +$1,067 |
| $128 (+15%) | +$797 | +$888 | +$989 | +$1,067 |
| $133 (+20%) | +$898 | +$968 | +$1,032 | +$1,067 |
Why This Strategy, Why Now
- RSI at 44
- IV -45% vs avg — premiums below average, less income
- MACD bullish — stock has upward momentum
- ADX at 18 — range-bound, perfect for selling calls
- TTM Squeeze ON — breakout imminent, risky for capped strategies
Key Risks
WMT has bullish momentum (MACD). If a positive catalyst emerges (earnings beat, product launch), the stock could gap past your strike. Consider rolling the call up if WMT approaches the strike before expiry.
TTM Squeeze is ON — a volatility breakout may be imminent. If the breakout is to the upside, your short call will be tested quickly.