CFR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CFR - Cullen/Frost Bankers Inc.
$167.80
1.46 (0.88%)
▲
5d:
+2.39%
30d:
+8.36%
90d:
+19.55%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CFR is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: CFR is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$185.35
Based on 4.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$115.08
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CFR is currently trading at $167.80, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $155.30 to $164.32. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 14.8) compared to its historical average (13.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CFR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $169.09. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CFR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $169.09. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$155.30 -
$164.32
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($159.57)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$155.30 -
$164.32
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$159.27
Resistance Level
$169.09
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.80
Wall Street Target
$159.57
(-4.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
15.2%
Profit Margin
30.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.5% premium
PE vs Historical
14.8 vs 13.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$172.16
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$178.19
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$184.42
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$165.69
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 4.8%)
$268.00
(+61%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.8, Growth: 4.8%)
$191.38
(+15%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.6, Growth: 4.8%)
$162.68
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.05
Bull Case
$201.07
(+21%)
Analyst growth 11.8%, PE expands to 17.9
Base Case
$182.79
(+10%)
Market implied 11.8%, PE stable at 16.3
Bear Case
$111.17
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 1:30 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:30 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:30 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CFR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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