CFR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CFR - Cullen/Frost Bankers Inc.
$157.90
1.04 (0.66%)
▲
5d:
+1.05%
30d:
+9.27%
90d:
+10.81%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
15d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CFR is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: CFR is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$179.12
Based on 4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$111.22
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CFR is currently trading at $157.90, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $144.19 to $155.81. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.2) is in line with its historical norms (13.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CFR is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $158.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CFR is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $158.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$144.19 -
$155.81
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($158.71)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$144.19 -
$155.81
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$152.19
Resistance Level
$158.20
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.19
Wall Street Target
$158.71
(+0.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
15.2%
Profit Margin
30.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.4% premium
PE vs Historical
14.2 vs 13.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$161.69
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$165.57
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$169.54
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$157.70
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 4.1%)
$273.64
(+73%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.2, Growth: 4.1%)
$178.29
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.1, Growth: 4.1%)
$151.55
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.27
Bull Case
$186.94
(+18%)
Analyst growth 8.3%, PE expands to 16.8
Base Case
$169.94
(+8%)
Market implied 8.3%, PE stable at 15.3
Bear Case
$106.66
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 10:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:13 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CFR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Bobby Berman
SELL
1000 shares
2026-01-30
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