MTB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTB - M&T Bank Corp.
$242.55
0.21 (0.09%)
▲
5d:
+1.1%
30d:
+8.32%
90d:
+10.29%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 15, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MTB is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: MTB is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$320.79
Based on 7.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$199.19
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTB is currently trading at $242.55, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $221.70 to $238.51. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.6) compared to its historical average (10.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTB is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $227.16. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTB is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $227.16. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$221.70 -
$238.51
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MTB? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($245.69)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$221.70 -
$238.51
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$209.74
Resistance Level
$227.17
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.58
Wall Street Target
$245.69
(+1.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
24.4%
Profit Margin
31.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.3% premium
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 10.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$250.34
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$258.60
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$267.13
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$242.18
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 11.8%)
$637.52
(+163%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: 11.8%)
$339.02
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.8, Growth: 11.8%)
$288.17
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.18 | Current EPS (TTM): $18.06
Bull Case
$303.24
(+25%)
Analyst growth 15.9%, PE expands to 14.5
Base Case
$275.67
(+14%)
Market implied 15.9%, PE stable at 13.2
Bear Case
$161.80
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 4:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:21 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Michael A Wisler
SELL
8237 shares
2026-02-26
John P Barnes
SELL
21193 shares
2026-02-09
Kirk W Walters
SELL
909 shares
2026-02-03
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