MGPI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MGPI - MGP Ingredients Inc
$16.63
0.38 (2.31%)
▲
5d:
+1.99%
30d:
-8.15%
90d:
-3.29%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
Get Alerted When MGPI Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MGPI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MGPI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.30
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.16
28.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MGPI is currently trading at $16.62, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.22 to $17.90. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.7) compared to its historical average (9.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGPI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $16.01, while resistance sits at $18.64.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.40 (+74.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGPI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $16.01, while resistance sits at $18.64.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.40 (+74.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$16.22 -
$17.90
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 74.8% below Wall St target ($28.40)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.22 -
$17.90
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.01
Resistance Level
$18.64
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.72
Wall Street Target
$28.40
(+74.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-12.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-33.6%
Profit Margin
-46.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.7 vs 9.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.37
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$14.54
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$13.76
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$16.22
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 29.7%)
$100.12
(+516%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.7, Growth: 29.7%)
$35.49
(+118%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.6, Growth: 29.7%)
$30.16
(+86%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.7 to 9.1
Stabilization Target:
$19.16
(+17.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 11:31 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:31 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:31 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is MGPI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
DEO
Diageo PLC ADR |
BUY
8 analysts |
$100 | 49 HOLD |
