MGP Ingredients (MGPI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MGPI - MGP Ingredients Inc
$14.76
-0.35 (-2.32%)
▼
5d:
-9.67%
30d:
-17.13%
90d:
-9.11%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MGPI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MGPI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.89
Based on 11.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.56
20.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MGPI is currently trading at $14.76, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.17 to $18.06. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.5) compared to its historical average (8.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGPI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.74. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.80 (+88.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGPI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.74. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.80 (+88.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$16.17 -
$18.06
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 88.3% below Wall St target ($27.80)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.17 -
$18.06
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.74
Resistance Level
$17.06
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.52
Wall Street Target
$27.80
(+88.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-14.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-17.7%
Profit Margin
-48.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.5 vs 8.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.93
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$13.15
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$12.42
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$14.70
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 18.9%)
$66.56
(+351%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.5, Growth: 18.9%)
$24.80
(+68%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.4, Growth: 18.9%)
$21.08
(+43%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.5 to 8.9
Stabilization Target:
$17.48
(+18.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 11, 2026 10:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:22 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:22 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MGPI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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