MGPI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MGPI - MGP Ingredients Inc
$17.38
0.32 (1.88%)
▲
5d:
+5.65%
30d:
+5.85%
90d:
-7.41%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MGPI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MGPI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.89
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.91
24.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MGPI is currently trading at $17.38, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.22 to $17.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.1) compared to its historical average (9.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGPI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $16.01, while resistance sits at $18.64.
Market Sentiment: MGPI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.40 (+60.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGPI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $16.01, while resistance sits at $18.64.
Market Sentiment: MGPI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.40 (+60.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$16.22 -
$17.03
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 60.6% below Wall St target ($27.40)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.22 -
$17.03
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.01
Resistance Level
$18.64
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.10
Wall Street Target
$27.40
(+60.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-12.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-33.6%
Profit Margin
-46.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.1 vs 9.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.46
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$15.89
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$15.33
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$17.02
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 29.7%)
$100.12
(+487%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.1, Growth: 29.7%)
$37.25
(+118%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.9, Growth: 29.7%)
$31.67
(+86%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.1 to 9.0
Stabilization Target:
$18.94
(+11.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 12:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:43 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:43 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MGPI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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