MGPI
MGP Ingredients Inc
WHOLESALE-BEER, WINE & DISTILLED ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES
MGP Ingredients (MGPI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$17.12
-0.09 (-0.52%)
▼
5d:
+8.84%
30d:
+32.92%
90d:
-1.04%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (27%)
Quality Score
34/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$13.71 – $16.22
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
9.0x
FAIR
vs 8.7x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$27.00
+57.7% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$14.71 / $17.76
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MGPI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.59
Based on 9.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.89
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MGPI is currently trading at $17.12, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.71 to $16.22. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.0) is in line with its historical norms (8.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGPI is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $14.71, while resistance sits at $17.76.
Market Sentiment: MGPI scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.00 (+57.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGPI is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $14.71, while resistance sits at $17.76.
Market Sentiment: MGPI scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.00 (+57.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$13.71 -
$16.22
Company Quality Score
34/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$13.71 -
$16.22
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$14.71
Resistance Level
$17.76
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 30, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.5% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 57.7% below Wall St target ($27.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.2% growth with -9.9% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 34/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.99
Wall Street Target
$27.00
(+57.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-9.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-55.3%
Profit Margin
-51.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.2% premium
PE vs Historical
9.0 vs 8.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.33
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$17.53
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$17.74
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$17.17
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 14.3%)
$56.44
(+230%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.0, Growth: 14.3%)
$25.56
(+49%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.6, Growth: 14.3%)
$21.72
(+27%)
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (MGPI)
Bullish
3 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
2 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Aug 5, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
MGP Ingredients MGPI saw a potential disruption to business due to cash flow issues but managed to avoid bankruptcy through quick action.
Key Retail Themes:
Company's ability to avoid bankruptcy
Quick action to mitigate risk
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 6:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:14 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MGPI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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