MGP Ingredients (MGPI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MGPI - MGP Ingredients Inc
$12.88
-0.37 (-2.79%)
▼
5d:
+1.1%
30d:
-21.8%
90d:
-24.15%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MGPI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MGPI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.55
Based on 11.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.35
29.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MGPI is currently trading at $12.88, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.33 to $16.67. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.6) compared to its historical average (8.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGPI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MGPI scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.80 (+115.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGPI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MGPI scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.80 (+115.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$13.33 -
$16.67
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 115.8% below Wall St target ($27.80)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.33 -
$16.67
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.50
Resistance Level
$14.44
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.56
Wall Street Target
$27.80
(+115.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-14.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-17.7%
Profit Margin
-48.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.6 vs 8.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.68
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$10.60
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$9.61
(-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→9)
$12.90
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 18.9%)
$67.32
(+423%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.6, Growth: 18.9%)
$21.64
(+68%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.6, Growth: 18.9%)
$18.40
(+43%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.6 to 8.8
Stabilization Target:
$17.28
(+34.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+34.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 3:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:10 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:10 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MGPI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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