Diageo (DEO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$100.19
-1.36 (-1.34%)
▼
5d:
+2.54%
30d:
+10.79%
90d:
+5.45%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (19%)
Quality Score
26/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$88.51 – $98.37
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
16.1x
STRETCHED
vs 13.5x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$109.17
+7.5% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$90.55 / $102.26
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: DEO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$86.93
Based on 0.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$53.98
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: DEO is currently trading at $100.19, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $88.51 to $98.37. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 16.1) compared to its historical average (13.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.3% annual earnings growth. This is a high bar to clear, indicating the stock may be priced for perfection.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DEO is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $102.26. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: DEO scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DEO is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $102.26. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: DEO scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$88.51 -
$98.37
Company Quality Score
26/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
19.0%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$88.51 -
$98.37
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$90.55
Resistance Level
$102.26
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($109.17)
- BEARISH: Market expects 6.3% growth - appears too optimistic based on history
- WARNING: Composite score 26/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.14
Wall Street Target
$109.17
(+7.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.9%
Profit Margin
8.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.3% premium
PE vs Historical
16.1 vs 13.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$107.95
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$114.75
(+13%)
3-Year Target
$121.98
(+20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→14)
PE COMPRESSION
$102.00
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -3.0%)
$113.85
(+12%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.1, Growth: -3.0%)
$92.55
(-9%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.5, Growth: -3.0%)
$77.39
(-24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.12
Bull Case
$222.84
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 35.7
Base Case
$202.58
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 32.5
Bear Case
$68.88
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (DEO)
Bearish
1 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
Last Tracked
Oct 18, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Reddit & WallStreetBets discussions on DEO are bearish (sentiment score +0.00) across 1 tracked comments.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 3:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:25 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is DEO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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