Diageo (DEO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
DEO - Diageo plc
$96.25
3.40 (3.66%)
▲
5d:
+2.44%
30d:
+11.78%
90d:
+15.85%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: DEO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: DEO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$85.64
Based on 0.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$53.18
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: DEO is currently trading at $96.25, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $84.75 to $91.14. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 14.8) compared to its historical average (13.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DEO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $96.31. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: DEO scores 10/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $106.29 (+14.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DEO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $96.31. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: DEO scores 10/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $106.29 (+14.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$84.75 -
$91.14
Company Quality Score
33/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.6% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (10/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($106.29)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 33/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$84.75 -
$91.14
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$86.36
Resistance Level
$96.31
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.76
Wall Street Target
$106.29
(+14.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.9%
Profit Margin
8.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.5% premium
PE vs Historical
14.8 vs 13.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$96.10
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$99.46
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$102.94
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$92.76
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -3.0%)
$113.85
(+23%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.8, Growth: -3.0%)
$84.62
(-9%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.5, Growth: -3.0%)
$71.93
(-23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.12
Bull Case
$205.50
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 32.9
Base Case
$186.82
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 29.9
Bear Case
$63.52
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 2:28 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:28 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:28 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is DEO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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