Diageo (DEO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
DEO - Diageo plc
$84.76
0.34 (0.40%)
▲
5d:
-3.15%
30d:
-7.0%
90d:
+3.78%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: DEO is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: DEO is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$85.64
Based on 0.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$53.18
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: DEO is currently trading at $84.76, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $85.30 to $91.54. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.4) is in line with its historical norms (13.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DEO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $84.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: DEO scores 67/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $107.57 (+27.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DEO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $84.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: DEO scores 67/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $107.57 (+27.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$85.30 -
$91.54
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
91.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (67/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.4% below Wall St target ($107.57)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 21% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$85.30 -
$91.54
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$84.00
Resistance Level
$88.13
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.42
Wall Street Target
$107.57
(+27.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.9%
Profit Margin
8.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.4% premium
PE vs Historical
13.4 vs 13.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$84.76
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$85.10
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$85.44
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$84.67
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: -3.0%)
$116.95
(+39%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.4, Growth: -3.0%)
$76.94
(-9%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.4, Growth: -3.0%)
$65.40
(-23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.12
Bull Case
$188.32
(+123%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 30.2
Base Case
$171.20
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 27.4
Bear Case
$58.21
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 1:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:32 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:32 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is DEO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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