DEO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
DEO - Diageo plc
$82.50
0.47 (0.57%)
▲
5d:
+1.02%
30d:
+3.41%
90d:
+6.52%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
21d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: DEO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: DEO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$83.33
Based on 0.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$51.74
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: DEO is currently trading at $82.50, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $79.74 to $82.47. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.1) is in line with its historical norms (12.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DEO is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $78.59, while resistance sits at $87.48.
Market Sentiment: DEO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $101.14 (+22.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DEO is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $78.59, while resistance sits at $87.48.
Market Sentiment: DEO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $101.14 (+22.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$79.74 -
$82.47
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.6% below Wall St target ($101.14)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$79.74 -
$82.47
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$78.60
Resistance Level
$87.48
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.11
Wall Street Target
$101.14
(+22.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.9%
Profit Margin
12.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.6% premium
PE vs Historical
13.1 vs 12.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$83.00
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$83.49
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$83.99
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$82.67
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -2.9%)
$125.52
(+52%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.1, Growth: -2.9%)
$75.54
(-8%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.1, Growth: -2.9%)
$64.21
(-22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.31
Bull Case
$129.50
(+58%)
Analyst growth 46.1%, PE expands to 20.6
Base Case
$117.73
(+44%)
Market implied 46.1%, PE stable at 18.7
Bear Case
$54.81
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 5:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:43 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:43 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is DEO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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