Diageo (DEO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
DEO - Diageo plc
$86.63
0.32 (0.37%)
▲
5d:
-4.47%
30d:
-7.8%
90d:
+6.79%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: DEO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: DEO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$85.00
Based on 0.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$52.78
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: DEO is currently trading at $86.63, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $88.65 to $95.02. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.8) is in line with its historical norms (13.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DEO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $85.74. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: DEO scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $106.29 (+22.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DEO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $85.74. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: DEO scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $106.29 (+22.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$88.65 -
$95.02
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (37/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.7% below Wall St target ($106.29)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$88.65 -
$95.02
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$85.74
Resistance Level
$93.18
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.77
Wall Street Target
$106.29
(+22.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.9%
Profit Margin
8.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.4% premium
PE vs Historical
13.8 vs 13.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$87.84
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$89.07
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$90.32
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$86.57
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -3.0%)
$115.63
(+34%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.8, Growth: -3.0%)
$78.95
(-9%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.7, Growth: -3.0%)
$67.11
(-23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.66 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.12
Bull Case
$189.88
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 30.4
Base Case
$172.62
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 27.7
Bear Case
$58.69
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 9:37 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:37 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:37 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is DEO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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