AMR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMR - Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.
$138.40
1.24 (0.90%)
▲
5d:
-4.91%
30d:
-13.5%
90d:
-24.11%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 07, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AMR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -13.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AMR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -13.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$423.52
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$262.98
47.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMR is currently trading at $138.40, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $141.24 to $157.27. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.9) compared to its historical average (7.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $133.64, while resistance sits at $149.03.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $169.80 (+22.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $133.64, while resistance sits at $149.03.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $169.80 (+22.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$141.24 -
$157.27
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.7% below Wall St target ($169.80)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$141.24 -
$157.27
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$13.17
(9.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$133.64
Resistance Level
$149.03
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.90
Wall Street Target
$169.80
(+22.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-95.6%
Profit Margin
-1.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.9 vs 7.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$124.56
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$112.10
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$100.89
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→8)
$158.55
(+15%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 14022.5%)
$1976.13
(+1328%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.9, Growth: 14022.5%)
$467.10
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.2, Growth: 14022.5%)
$397.04
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.9 to 7.7
Stabilization Target:
$217.49
(+57.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+57.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 12:53 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:53 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:53 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
2
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Kenneth S Courtis
BUY
8000 shares
2026-03-12
Kenneth S Courtis
BUY
10000 shares
2026-03-11
Kenneth S Courtis
BUY
15000 shares
2026-03-10
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Advanced AMR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AMR price and gamma walls.
