ARLP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARLP - Alliance Resource Partners LP
$26.30
0.23 (0.88%)
▲
5d:
+3.46%
30d:
+6.18%
90d:
+5.92%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 27, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ARLP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ARLP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$44.69
Based on 11.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.75
5.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARLP is currently trading at $26.30, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.69 to $25.94. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.0) is in line with its historical norms (9.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 34.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARLP is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $26.45. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ARLP scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.17 (+18.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARLP is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $26.45. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ARLP scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.17 (+18.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$24.69 -
$25.94
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
26.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (30/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($31.17)
- WARNING: Composite score 39/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.69 -
$25.94
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.41
Resistance Level
$26.45
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.04
Wall Street Target
$31.17
(+18.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
34.1%
Profit Margin
12.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.0 vs 9.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.25
(0%)
2-Year Target
$26.19
(0%)
3-Year Target
$26.14
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$26.32
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 18.3%)
$96.67
(+268%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.0, Growth: 18.3%)
$43.53
(+66%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.7, Growth: 18.3%)
$37.00
(+41%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.72 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.05
Bull Case
$40.71
(+55%)
Analyst growth 42.0%, PE expands to 14.0
Base Case
$37.01
(+41%)
Market implied 42.0%, PE stable at 12.7
Bear Case
$17.73
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.0 to 9.1
Stabilization Target:
$26.48
(+0.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 9:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:42 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARLP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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