ARLP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARLP - Alliance Resource Partners LP
$25.25
-0.12 (-0.47%)
▼
5d:
-0.63%
30d:
+2.56%
90d:
-8.18%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 27, 2026
Get Alerted When ARLP Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ARLP shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ARLP shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$43.54
Based on 11.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.04
6.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARLP is currently trading at $25.25, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.89 to $25.71. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.2) is in line with its historical norms (9.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARLP is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $24.80. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ARLP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $30.33 (+20.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARLP is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $24.80. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ARLP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $30.33 (+20.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$24.89 -
$25.71
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.1% below Wall St target ($30.33)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.89 -
$25.71
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.80
Resistance Level
$26.29
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 10, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.18
Wall Street Target
$30.33
(+20.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-88.5%
Profit Margin
11.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.2 vs 9.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.15
(0%)
2-Year Target
$25.05
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$24.95
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$25.27
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 18.7%)
$100.82
(+299%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.2, Growth: 18.7%)
$42.23
(+67%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.8, Growth: 18.7%)
$35.90
(+42%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.35 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.90
Bull Case
$40.39
(+60%)
Analyst growth 44.7%, PE expands to 14.7
Base Case
$36.72
(+45%)
Market implied 44.7%, PE stable at 13.4
Bear Case
$17.25
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.2 to 9.3
Stabilization Target:
$25.58
(+1.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 11, 2026 1:26 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:25 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:25 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is ARLP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Virginia Foxx
BUY
2026-02-13
Top Rated Thermal Coal Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Thermal Coal by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
BTU
Peabody Energy Corp |
BUY
6 analysts |
$34 | 58 HOLD |
