ARLP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARLP - Alliance Resource Partners LP
$23.81
0.07 (0.29%)
▲
5d:
-2.54%
30d:
-6.63%
90d:
-13.64%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 27, 2026
23d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ARLP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ARLP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$47.13
Based on 12.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.26
18.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARLP is currently trading at $23.81, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.12 to $25.41. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.3) is in line with its historical norms (9.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARLP is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $23.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ARLP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.00 (+30.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARLP is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $23.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ARLP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.00 (+30.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$24.12 -
$25.41
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 30.2% below Wall St target ($31.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.12 -
$25.41
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.45
Resistance Level
$24.66
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.32
Wall Street Target
$31.00
(+30.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-88.5%
Profit Margin
11.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.3 vs 9.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.02
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$22.26
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$21.53
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$23.82
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 21.0%)
$110.43
(+364%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.3, Growth: 21.0%)
$42.16
(+77%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.1, Growth: 21.0%)
$35.84
(+51%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.49 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.90
Bull Case
$39.35
(+65%)
Analyst growth 50.7%, PE expands to 13.7
Base Case
$35.78
(+50%)
Market implied 50.7%, PE stable at 12.5
Bear Case
$16.14
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.3 to 9.2
Stabilization Target:
$26.34
(+10.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 02, 2026 10:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:57 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:57 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARLP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Virginia Foxx
BUY
2026-02-13
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