ARLP
Alliance Resource Partners LP
BITUMINOUS COAL & LIGNITE SURFACE MINING
ARLP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$25.25
+0.17 (+0.68%)
▲
5d:
+0.28%
30d:
+0.28%
90d:
+1.49%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
MODERATE Confidence (83%)
Quality Score
54/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$24.72 – $26.23
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
8.3x
FAIR
vs 9.0x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$32.33
+28.1% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$23.97 / $27.00
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ARLP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$48.80
Based on 12.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.30
16.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARLP is currently trading at $25.25, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.72 to $26.23. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.3) is in line with its historical norms (9.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 47.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARLP is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $23.97, while resistance sits at $27.00.
Market Sentiment: ARLP scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.33 (+28.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARLP is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $23.97, while resistance sits at $27.00.
Market Sentiment: ARLP scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.33 (+28.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$24.72 -
$26.23
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$24.72 -
$26.23
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$23.97
Resistance Level
$27.00
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (66/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.1% below Wall St target ($32.33)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 66/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.30
Wall Street Target
$32.33
(+28.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
47.9%
Profit Margin
14.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.3 vs 9.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.57
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$23.90
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$23.26
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$25.23
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 20.8%)
$106.45
(+322%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.3, Growth: 20.8%)
$44.47
(+76%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.1, Growth: 20.8%)
$37.80
(+50%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.40
Bull Case
$34.98
(+39%)
Analyst growth 26.8%, PE expands to 11.5
Base Case
$31.80
(+26%)
Market implied 26.8%, PE stable at 10.5
Bear Case
$17.05
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.3 to 9.0
Stabilization Target:
$27.39
(+8.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.5%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (ARLP)
Bearish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Sep 28, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Bullish sentiment on StockTwits surged after the White House announced China's intent to import an additional 20 million metric tons of American coal in the next two years.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 7:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:48 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARLP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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