ARLP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARLP - Alliance Resource Partners LP
$26.53
-0.34 (-1.27%)
âŧ
5d:
+0.99%
30d:
+5.7%
90d:
+5.57%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 26, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ARLP is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 0.1% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ARLP is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 0.1% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$44.69
Based on 11.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.75
4.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARLP is currently trading at $26.53, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.29 to $26.61. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.1) is in line with its historical norms (9.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARLP is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.96. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.17 (+17.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARLP is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.96. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.17 (+17.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$25.29 -
$26.61
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (50/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($31.17)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.29 -
$26.61
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.96
Resistance Level
$26.94
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.12
Wall Street Target
$31.17
(+17.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
34.1%
Profit Margin
12.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.1% premium
PE vs Historical
9.1 vs 9.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.56
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$26.58
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$26.61
(+0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9â9)
PE COMPRESSION
$26.56
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 18.3%)
$97.16
(+266%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.1, Growth: 18.3%)
$43.91
(+66%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.7, Growth: 18.3%)
$37.33
(+41%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.11 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.05
Bull Case
$41.96
(+58%)
Analyst growth 42.0%, PE expands to 14.4
Base Case
$38.14
(+44%)
Market implied 42.0%, PE stable at 13.1
Bear Case
$18.27
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 11:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:17 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:17 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARLP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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