ARLP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARLP - Alliance Resource Partners LP
$25.66
0.95 (3.82%)
▲
5d:
+5.4%
30d:
+5.01%
90d:
+3.03%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 27, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ARLP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ARLP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$46.47
Based on 12.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.86
11.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARLP is currently trading at $25.66, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $23.95 to $24.84. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.6) is in line with its historical norms (9.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARLP is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $25.69. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: ARLP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.00 (+25.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARLP is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $25.69. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: ARLP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.00 (+25.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$23.95 -
$24.84
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 25.5% below Wall St target ($31.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$23.95 -
$24.84
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.17
Resistance Level
$25.69
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.62
Wall Street Target
$31.00
(+25.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-88.5%
Profit Margin
11.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.6 vs 9.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.24
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$23.78
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$23.33
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$24.63
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.8, Growth: 20.8%)
$105.13
(+326%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.6, Growth: 20.8%)
$43.55
(+76%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.3, Growth: 20.8%)
$37.02
(+50%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.11 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.89
Bull Case
$41.33
(+67%)
Analyst growth 51.7%, PE expands to 14.4
Base Case
$37.57
(+52%)
Market implied 51.7%, PE stable at 13.1
Bear Case
$16.84
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.6 to 9.1
Stabilization Target:
$26.09
(+5.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 27, 2026 2:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:18 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:18 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARLP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
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BUY
2026-02-13
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