ARLP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARLP - Alliance Resource Partners LP
$24.53
0.19 (0.78%)
▲
5d:
-2.47%
30d:
-7.57%
90d:
+3.15%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 26, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ARLP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ARLP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$44.69
Based on 11.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.75
11.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARLP is currently trading at $24.53, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.10 to $26.64. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.4) is in line with its historical norms (9.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 34.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARLP is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.17 (+27.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARLP is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.17 (+27.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$25.10 -
$26.64
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (53/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.1% below Wall St target ($31.17)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (53/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.10 -
$26.64
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.01
Resistance Level
$26.24
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.43
Wall Street Target
$31.17
(+27.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
34.1%
Profit Margin
12.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.4 vs 9.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.94
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$23.37
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$22.81
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$24.62
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 18.3%)
$98.26
(+301%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.4, Growth: 18.3%)
$40.60
(+66%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.2, Growth: 18.3%)
$34.51
(+41%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.87 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.05
Bull Case
$38.01
(+55%)
Analyst growth 42.0%, PE expands to 13.1
Base Case
$34.55
(+41%)
Market implied 42.0%, PE stable at 11.9
Bear Case
$16.55
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.4 to 9.1
Stabilization Target:
$26.48
(+8.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 3:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:11 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARLP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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