CFR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CFR - Cullen/Frost Bankers Inc.
$168.94
2.60 (1.56%)
▲
5d:
+3.09%
30d:
+9.09%
90d:
+20.36%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CFR is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: CFR is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$193.03
Based on 4.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$119.86
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CFR is currently trading at $168.94, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $155.27 to $164.44. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.6) is in line with its historical norms (13.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CFR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $169.68. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CFR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $169.68. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$155.27 -
$164.44
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($165.14)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$155.27 -
$164.44
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$159.75
Resistance Level
$169.68
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.61
Wall Street Target
$165.14
(-2.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
12.8%
Profit Margin
30.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.1% premium
PE vs Historical
14.6 vs 13.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$174.18
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$179.58
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$185.14
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$169.76
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 5.0%)
$277.48
(+64%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.6, Growth: 5.0%)
$195.61
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.4, Growth: 5.0%)
$166.27
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.05
Bull Case
$201.07
(+21%)
Analyst growth 11.8%, PE expands to 17.9
Base Case
$182.79
(+10%)
Market implied 11.8%, PE stable at 16.3
Bear Case
$111.17
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 5:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:19 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CFR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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