CTBI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CTBI - Community Trust Bancorp Inc
$70.08
1.12 (1.62%)
▲
5d:
+1.83%
30d:
+4.6%
90d:
+17.09%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 15, 2026
20d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CTBI is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: CTBI is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$76.22
Based on 3.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$47.33
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CTBI is currently trading at $70.08, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $66.18 to $69.37. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.2) is in line with its historical norms (10.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CTBI is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $71.28. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CTBI is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $71.28. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$66.18 -
$69.37
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($73.67)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$66.18 -
$69.37
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$66.13
Resistance Level
$71.28
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 17, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.17
Wall Street Target
$73.67
(+5.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.0%
Profit Margin
37.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.4% premium
PE vs Historical
11.2 vs 10.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$71.76
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$73.48
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$75.25
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$70.09
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 2.3%)
$146.28
(+109%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.2, Growth: 2.3%)
$74.99
(+7%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.5, Growth: 2.3%)
$63.74
(-9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.08 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.71
Bull Case
$83.38
(+19%)
Analyst growth 9.9%, PE expands to 13.3
Base Case
$75.80
(+8%)
Market implied 9.9%, PE stable at 12.1
Bear Case
$46.89
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 8:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:10 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:10 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CTBI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Ricky D Sparkman
BUY
84 shares
2026-03-13
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