CTBI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CTBI - Community Trust Bancorp Inc
$78.58
0.13 (0.17%)
▲
5d:
+2.5%
30d:
+8.01%
90d:
+19.42%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CTBI is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: CTBI is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$78.38
Based on 2.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$48.67
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CTBI is currently trading at $78.58, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $71.99 to $76.85. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 12.1) compared to its historical average (10.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CTBI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $79.59. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CTBI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CTBI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $79.59. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CTBI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$71.99 -
$76.85
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($81.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$71.99 -
$76.85
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$72.88
Resistance Level
$79.59
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.12
Wall Street Target
$81.33
(+3.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
18.8%
Profit Margin
37.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.6% premium
PE vs Historical
12.1 vs 10.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$82.06
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$85.83
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$89.78
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$78.53
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 1.4%)
$139.72
(+78%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.1, Growth: 1.4%)
$81.68
(+4%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.3, Growth: 1.4%)
$69.43
(-12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.12 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.95
Bull Case
$93.43
(+19%)
Analyst growth 8.8%, PE expands to 14.4
Base Case
$84.94
(+8%)
Market implied 8.8%, PE stable at 13.1
Bear Case
$53.09
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 12:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CTBI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Ricky D Sparkman
BUY
84 shares
2026-03-13
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