Community Trust Bancorp (CTBI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$70.16
+0.07 (+0.10%)
▲
5d:
-0.78%
30d:
-5.29%
90d:
-11.31%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
HIGH Confidence (86%)
Quality Score
60/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$69.45 – $74.53
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
10.8x
FAIR
vs 10.9x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$76.67
+9.4% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$68.67 / $72.73
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CTBI shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$88.48
Based on 4.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$54.94
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CTBI is currently trading at $70.16, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $69.45 to $74.53. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.8) is in line with its historical norms (10.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 8.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CTBI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $68.67. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CTBI scores 80/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CTBI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $68.67. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CTBI scores 80/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$69.45 -
$74.53
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
85.7%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$69.45 -
$74.53
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support Level
$68.67
Resistance Level
$72.73
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (80/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($76.67)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 80/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.81
Wall Street Target
$76.67
(+9.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.3%
Profit Margin
37.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.8 vs 10.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$69.88
(0%)
2-Year Target
$69.67
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$69.46
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
$70.03
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 5.2%)
$149.87
(+114%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.8, Growth: 5.2%)
$81.58
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.2, Growth: 5.2%)
$69.35
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.55 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.08
Bull Case
$82.37
(+18%)
Analyst growth 6.6%, PE expands to 12.7
Base Case
$74.88
(+7%)
Market implied 6.6%, PE stable at 11.6
Bear Case
$47.75
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.8 to 10.9
Stabilization Target:
$70.67
(+0.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.8%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (CTBI)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Mar 30, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Community Trust Bancorp (CTBI) is a finance company with a dividend yield of 3.54%, which is higher than the industry and S&P 500 averages. The company has increased its dividend for five consecutive years and has a payout ratio of 39%. CTBI is expected to have solid earnings growth in the fiscal year.
Key Retail Themes:
CTBI's dividend growth
CTBI's solid earnings growth
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 3:28 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:28 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:28 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CTBI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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