DEO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
DEO - Diageo plc
$82.24
2.65 (3.33%)
▲
5d:
+2.43%
30d:
-4.35%
90d:
+10.94%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: DEO shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: DEO shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$85.55
Based on 0.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$53.12
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: DEO is currently trading at $82.24, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $79.39 to $84.30. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.5) is in line with its historical norms (12.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 2.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DEO is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $78.59, while resistance sits at $87.48. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $99.71 (+25.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DEO is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $78.59, while resistance sits at $87.48. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $99.71 (+25.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$79.39 -
$84.30
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 25.3% below Wall St target ($99.71)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$79.39 -
$84.30
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$78.60
Resistance Level
$87.48
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.54
Wall Street Target
$99.71
(+25.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.9%
Profit Margin
12.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.5 vs 12.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$78.87
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$78.16
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$77.46
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→13)
$79.71
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -2.2%)
$129.46
(+63%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.5, Growth: -2.2%)
$74.51
(-6%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.7, Growth: -2.2%)
$63.34
(-20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.58 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.33
Bull Case
$129.75
(+63%)
Analyst growth 46.6%, PE expands to 20.4
Base Case
$117.96
(+48%)
Market implied 46.6%, PE stable at 18.6
Bear Case
$54.71
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.5 to 12.9
Stabilization Target:
$81.90
(+2.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 4:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is DEO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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