DEO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
DEO - Diageo plc
$88.06
-1.00 (-1.12%)
▼
5d:
+5.99%
30d:
+11.89%
90d:
+9.19%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
TODAY
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: DEO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: DEO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$83.07
Based on 0.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$51.58
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: DEO is currently trading at $88.06, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $80.64 to $85.67. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.0) is in line with its historical norms (12.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DEO is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $89.67. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: DEO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $101.43 (+15.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DEO is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $89.67. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: DEO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $101.43 (+15.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$80.64 -
$85.67
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($101.43)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$80.64 -
$85.67
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$81.41
Resistance Level
$89.67
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.00
Wall Street Target
$101.43
(+15.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.9%
Profit Margin
12.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.7% premium
PE vs Historical
14.0 vs 12.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$90.44
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$92.88
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$95.39
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$87.90
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: -3.0%)
$118.84
(+35%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.0, Growth: -3.0%)
$80.25
(-9%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.9, Growth: -3.0%)
$68.21
(-23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.62 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.32
Bull Case
$142.65
(+62%)
Analyst growth 45.6%, PE expands to 22.7
Base Case
$129.68
(+47%)
Market implied 45.6%, PE stable at 20.6
Bear Case
$60.56
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 1:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:11 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is DEO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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