FCNCA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FCNCA - First Citizens BancShares Inc
$2218.44
31.79 (1.45%)
▲
5d:
+3.79%
30d:
+6.5%
90d:
+11.74%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FCNCA is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: FCNCA is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$2390.69
Based on 3.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1484.43
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FCNCA is currently trading at $2218.44, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $2068.04 to $2165.12. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.2) is in line with its historical norms (10.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FCNCA is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $2237.82. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FCNCA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FCNCA is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $2237.82. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FCNCA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$2068.04 -
$2165.12
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($2338.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$2068.04 -
$2165.12
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$2042.73
Resistance Level
$2237.82
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.21
Wall Street Target
$2338.50
(+5.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
31.0%
Profit Margin
25.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.9% premium
PE vs Historical
11.2 vs 10.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$2282.77
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$2348.98
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$2417.10
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$2219.98
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 2.5%)
$4416.72
(+99%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.2, Growth: 2.5%)
$2389.37
(+8%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.5, Growth: 2.5%)
$2030.96
(-9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.66 | Current EPS (TTM): $184.98
Bull Case
$2538.21
(+16%)
Analyst growth 7.0%, PE expands to 12.8
Base Case
$2307.47
(+6%)
Market implied 7.0%, PE stable at 11.7
Bear Case
$1466.24
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 5:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:59 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FCNCA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
7
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Thomas H. Kean, Jr.
SELL
2026-03-26
Frank B Holding Jr
BUY
92 shares
2026-03-19
Frank B Holding Jr
BUY
4 shares
2026-03-19
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