Wintrust Financial (WTFC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$154.37
-0.60 (-0.39%)
▼
5d:
+1.75%
30d:
+9.47%
90d:
-4.99%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (49%)
Quality Score
41/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$144.05 – $154.00
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
10.9x
FAIR
vs 11.1x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$175.13
+13.0% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$150.47 / $161.08
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: WTFC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$204.06
Based on 5.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$126.71
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: WTFC is currently trading at $154.37, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $144.05 to $154.00. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.9) is in line with its historical norms (11.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 21.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WTFC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $150.47. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $175.12 (+13.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WTFC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $150.47. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $175.12 (+13.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$144.05 -
$154.00
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
48.6%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$144.05 -
$154.00
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$150.47
Resistance Level
$161.08
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (42/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($175.12)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.94
Wall Street Target
$175.13
(+13.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
21.2%
Profit Margin
32.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.9 vs 11.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$154.35
(0%)
2-Year Target
$153.73
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$153.12
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
$155.40
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 6.7%)
$342.23
(+121%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.9, Growth: 6.7%)
$188.46
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.3, Growth: 6.7%)
$160.19
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.88 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.01
Bull Case
$185.17
(+20%)
Analyst growth 8.9%, PE expands to 13.1
Base Case
$168.34
(+9%)
Market implied 8.9%, PE stable at 11.9
Bear Case
$105.10
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.9 to 11.1
Stabilization Target:
$157.28
(+1.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.5%
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Last updated: November 12, 2026 3:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:51 PM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
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NEUTRAL
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