Wintrust Financial (WTFC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
WTFC - Wintrust Financial Corp
$150.72
0.97 (0.65%)
▲
5d:
+4.61%
30d:
+4.43%
90d:
-5.13%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 19, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: WTFC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: WTFC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$202.36
Based on 5.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$125.65
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: WTFC is currently trading at $150.72, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $142.63 to $148.25. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.6) is in line with its historical norms (11.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 21.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WTFC is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $149.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: WTFC scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $173.19 (+15.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WTFC is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $149.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: WTFC scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $173.19 (+15.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$142.63 -
$148.25
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
26.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($173.19)
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$142.63 -
$148.25
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$140.45
Resistance Level
$149.87
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.61
Wall Street Target
$173.19
(+15.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
21.2%
Profit Margin
32.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.6 vs 11.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$147.50
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$145.29
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$143.11
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
$149.76
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 6.5%)
$338.32
(+126%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.6, Growth: 6.5%)
$180.70
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.0, Growth: 6.5%)
$153.59
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.30 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.04
Bull Case
$175.49
(+17%)
Analyst growth 8.3%, PE expands to 12.4
Base Case
$159.54
(+7%)
Market implied 8.3%, PE stable at 11.3
Bear Case
$100.20
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.6 to 11.1
Stabilization Target:
$156.71
(+4.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 1:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:22 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:22 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is WTFC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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