Wintrust Financial (WTFC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
WTFC - Wintrust Financial Corp
$145.02
1.47 (1.02%)
▲
5d:
-0.75%
30d:
-4.73%
90d:
-10.91%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 19, 2026
15d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: WTFC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: WTFC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$194.12
Based on 4.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$120.53
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: WTFC is currently trading at $145.02, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $145.06 to $152.51. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.5) is in line with its historical norms (11.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 18.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WTFC is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $148.66. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: WTFC scores 78/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $177.07 (+22.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WTFC is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $148.66. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: WTFC scores 78/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $177.07 (+22.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$145.06 -
$152.51
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (78/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.1% below Wall St target ($177.07)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 20% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$145.06 -
$152.51
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$138.56
Resistance Level
$148.66
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.48
Wall Street Target
$177.07
(+22.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
18.7%
Profit Margin
32.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.5 vs 11.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$142.12
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$139.28
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$136.49
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$144.53
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 5.6%)
$332.31
(+129%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.5, Growth: 5.6%)
$170.76
(+18%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.9, Growth: 5.6%)
$145.14
(+0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.60
Bull Case
$173.38
(+20%)
Analyst growth 9.8%, PE expands to 12.5
Base Case
$157.62
(+9%)
Market implied 9.8%, PE stable at 11.4
Bear Case
$97.61
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.5 to 11.1
Stabilization Target:
$153.57
(+5.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 5:12 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:12 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:12 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is WTFC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David L Stoehr
SELL
3020 shares
2026-04-23
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