FOUR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FOUR - Shift4 Payments, Inc.
$38.67
0.10 (0.26%)
▲
5d:
-3.18%
30d:
-11.16%
90d:
-12.17%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FOUR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -9.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FOUR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -9.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$94.16
Based on 12.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$58.47
33.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FOUR is currently trading at $38.67, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.53 to $43.30. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.7) compared to its historical average (7.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FOUR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $34.56, while resistance sits at $42.66.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.15 (+58.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FOUR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $34.56, while resistance sits at $42.66.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.15 (+58.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$38.53 -
$43.30
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 58.1% below Wall St target ($61.15)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$38.53 -
$43.30
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$34.56
Resistance Level
$42.66
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.72
Wall Street Target
$61.15
(+58.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
32.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-72.2%
Profit Margin
2.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.7 vs 7.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$34.84
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$31.39
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$28.28
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→8)
$38.58
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 20.9%)
$260.30
(+573%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.7, Growth: 20.9%)
$68.35
(+77%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.9, Growth: 20.9%)
$58.10
(+50%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (45x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 44.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.87
Bull Case
$85.54
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 49.2
Base Case
$77.76
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 44.7
Bear Case
$26.44
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 38.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.7 to 7.8
Stabilization Target:
$52.74
(+36.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+36.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 6:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:44 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FOUR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Jared Isaacman
BUY
43827 shares
2026-03-10
Jared Isaacman
BUY
45693 shares
2026-03-02
Jared Isaacman
BUY
159244 shares
2026-02-27
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