FOUR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FOUR - Shift4 Payments, Inc.
$49.23
-1.58 (-3.11%)
▼
5d:
-4.18%
30d:
+38.17%
90d:
+11.43%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
20d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.7/10
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1 traders called FOUR this week
0% bullish • 1 bearish
0% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FOUR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FOUR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$94.55
Based on 12.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$58.71
16.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FOUR is currently trading at $49.23, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.39 to $48.00. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.3) is in line with its historical norms (7.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FOUR is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $46.50, while resistance sits at $52.50. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: FOUR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $60.43 (+22.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FOUR is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $46.50, while resistance sits at $52.50. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: FOUR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $60.43 (+22.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$38.39 -
$48.00
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 22.7% below Wall St target ($60.43)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$38.39 -
$48.00
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$46.50
Resistance Level
$52.50
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.30
Wall Street Target
$60.43
(+22.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
32.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-72.2%
Profit Margin
2.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.3 vs 7.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$48.25
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$47.28
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$46.33
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$49.52
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 21.2%)
$261.70
(+432%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.3, Growth: 21.2%)
$87.69
(+78%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.2, Growth: 21.2%)
$74.53
(+51%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 9.11 | Forward EPS (Implied): $5.41
Bull Case
$59.45
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 9.6
Base Case
$49.23
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 9.1
Bear Case
$37.66
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 8.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.3 to 7.8
Stabilization Target:
$52.62
(+6.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 3:33 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:33 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:33 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FOUR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Jared Isaacman
BUY
43827 shares
2026-03-10
Jared Isaacman
BUY
45693 shares
2026-03-02
Jared Isaacman
BUY
159244 shares
2026-02-27
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FOUR price and gamma walls.
