Shift4 Payments (FOUR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FOUR - Shift4 Payments, Inc.
$36.17
0.59 (1.66%)
▲
5d:
-5.93%
30d:
-18.22%
90d:
-29.6%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: FOUR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: FOUR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$80.98
Based on 11.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$50.28
28.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FOUR is currently trading at $36.17, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.01 to $45.09. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.8) compared to its historical average (7.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FOUR is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $35.27. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $55.05 (+52.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FOUR is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $35.27. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $55.05 (+52.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$38.01 -
$45.09
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding FOUR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 52.2% below Wall St target ($55.05)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$38.01 -
$45.09
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.27
Resistance Level
$40.02
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.83
Wall Street Target
$55.05
(+52.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
34.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-75.4%
Profit Margin
2.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.8 vs 7.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$33.17
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$30.41
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$27.89
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→8)
$36.36
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 19.1%)
$213.69
(+491%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.8, Growth: 19.1%)
$61.06
(+69%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.0, Growth: 19.1%)
$51.90
(+44%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 6.41 | Forward EPS (Implied): $5.64
Bull Case
$43.68
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 6.7
Base Case
$36.17
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 6.4
Bear Case
$27.67
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 5.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.8 to 7.6
Stabilization Target:
$47.16
(+30.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+30.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 11:00 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FOUR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced FOUR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FOUR price and gamma walls.
