Shift4 Payments (FOUR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$43.56
-0.17 (-0.39%)
▼
5d:
-2.81%
30d:
+12.15%
90d:
-9.25%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
0d
Protect FOUR Gains
Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (27%)
Quality Score
37/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$38.07 – $42.52
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
7.8x
FAIR
vs 7.5x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$48.91
+12.3% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$37.00 / $46.33
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: FOUR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 2, 2026 at $42.24 · last confirmed Nov 10, 2026
Strength: 7.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$57.30
Based on 6.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$35.58
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FOUR is currently trading at $43.56, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.07 to $42.52. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.8) is in line with its historical norms (7.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FOUR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $37.00, while resistance sits at $46.33.
Market Sentiment: FOUR scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.91 (+12.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FOUR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $37.00, while resistance sits at $46.33.
Market Sentiment: FOUR scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.91 (+12.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$38.07 -
$42.52
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$38.07 -
$42.52
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$37.00
Resistance Level
$46.33
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding FOUR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($48.91)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 37/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.82
Wall Street Target
$48.91
(+12.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
109.7%
Profit Margin
2.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.6% premium
PE vs Historical
7.8 vs 7.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$44.26
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$44.97
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$45.68
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$43.79
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 9.1%)
$143.54
(+230%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.8, Growth: 9.1%)
$56.55
(+30%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.7, Growth: 9.1%)
$48.07
(+10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 7.50 | Forward EPS (Implied): $5.81
Bull Case
$52.60
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 7.9
Base Case
$43.56
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 7.5
Bear Case
$33.32
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 6.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (FOUR)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 5, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Despite beating earnings, Shift4 Payments ($FOUR) experienced a 13% sell-off due to a slight miss on gross revenue expectations. The stock, valued at $3.2 billion, generates $470 million in free cash flow and has impressive revenue growth.
Key Retail Themes:
earnings beat
sales miss
growth potential
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 8:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FOUR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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