GDEV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GDEV - GDEV Inc. Ordinary Shares
$12.21
0.21 (1.75%)
▲
5d:
+2.25%
30d:
-3.17%
90d:
-33.64%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 01, 2026
28d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GDEV appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -17.5% annual earnings decline despite 67% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GDEV appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -17.5% annual earnings decline despite 67% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.01
Based on 11.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.98
46.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GDEV is currently trading at $12.21, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.83 to $12.60. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 2.3) compared to its historical average (4.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 17.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 67.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GDEV is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $11.70, while resistance sits at $13.11.
Market Sentiment: GDEV has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $70.00 (+473.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GDEV is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $11.70, while resistance sits at $13.11.
Market Sentiment: GDEV has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $70.00 (+473.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$11.83 -
$12.60
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
MODERATE
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: Trading 473.3% below Wall St target ($70.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.83 -
$12.60
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.70
Resistance Level
$13.11
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
2.34
Wall Street Target
$70.00
(+473.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-7.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
67.1%
Profit Margin
17.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-17.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
2.3 vs 4.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-17.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.99
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$9.89
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$8.90
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→4)
$15.95
(+31%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 18.4%)
$179.30
(+1369%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 2.3, Growth: 18.4%)
$20.27
(+66%)
Bear:
(PE: 2.0, Growth: 18.4%)
$17.23
(+41%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (3x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 3.18 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.77
Bull Case
$18.24
(+49%)
Analyst growth 38.2%, PE expands to 3.5
Base Case
$16.58
(+36%)
Market implied 38.2%, PE stable at 3.2
Bear Case
$8.16
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 2.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 2.3 to 4.2
Stabilization Target:
$21.88
(+79.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+79.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 8:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:35 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:35 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GDEV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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