GDEV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GDEV - GDEV Inc. Ordinary Shares
$10.63
-0.57 (-5.13%)
▼
5d:
-12.59%
30d:
-9.19%
90d:
-36.76%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 01, 2026
8d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: GDEV is down 12.6% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: GDEV is down 12.6% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$35.25
Based on 11.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.89
51.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GDEV is currently trading at $10.62, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.35 to $12.78. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 2.0) compared to its historical average (4.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 19.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 67.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GDEV is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $10.00, while resistance sits at $13.73. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: GDEV scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $70.00 (+558.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GDEV is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $10.00, while resistance sits at $13.73. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: GDEV scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $70.00 (+558.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$11.35 -
$12.78
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (34/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 558.8% below Wall St target ($70.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.35 -
$12.78
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.00
Resistance Level
$13.73
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
2.04
Wall Street Target
$70.00
(+558.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-7.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
67.1%
Profit Margin
17.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-19.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
2.0 vs 4.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-19.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.56
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$8.61
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$7.75
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→4)
$15.19
(+43%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 18.4%)
$173.60
(+1534%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 2.0, Growth: 18.4%)
$17.64
(+66%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.7, Growth: 18.4%)
$14.99
(+41%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (3x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 2.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.96
Bull Case
$16.21
(+53%)
Analyst growth 31.6%, PE expands to 3.1
Base Case
$14.74
(+39%)
Market implied 31.6%, PE stable at 2.8
Bear Case
$7.62
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 2.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 2.0 to 4.0
Stabilization Target:
$20.84
(+96.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+96.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 1:36 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:36 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:36 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GDEV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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