GDEV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GDEV - GDEV Inc. Ordinary Shares
$12.57
0.34 (2.82%)
▲
5d:
-1.06%
30d:
-21.47%
90d:
-17.06%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 15, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GDEV shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: GDEV shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$40.54
Based on 11.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$25.17
50.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GDEV is currently trading at $12.56, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.59 to $15.20. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 2.4) compared to its historical average (4.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 19.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 67.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GDEV is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $11.80, while resistance sits at $15.41.
Market Sentiment: GDEV has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $70.00 (+457.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GDEV is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $11.80, while resistance sits at $15.41.
Market Sentiment: GDEV has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $70.00 (+457.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$12.59 -
$15.20
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 457.1% below Wall St target ($70.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.59 -
$15.20
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.80
Resistance Level
$15.42
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
2.41
Wall Street Target
$70.00
(+457.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-7.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
67.1%
Profit Margin
17.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-19.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
2.4 vs 4.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-19.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.31
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$10.18
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$9.16
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→5)
$17.47
(+39%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 18.4%)
$188.39
(+1399%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 2.4, Growth: 18.4%)
$20.86
(+66%)
Bear:
(PE: 2.0, Growth: 18.4%)
$17.73
(+41%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (3x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 3.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.73
Bull Case
$19.50
(+60%)
Analyst growth 39.7%, PE expands to 3.7
Base Case
$17.72
(+45%)
Market implied 39.7%, PE stable at 3.4
Bear Case
$8.63
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 2.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 2.4 to 4.6
Stabilization Target:
$23.97
(+90.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+90.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 5:09 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:09 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:09 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GDEV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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