GDEV Inc. Ordinary Shares (GDEV) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GDEV - GDEV Inc. Ordinary Shares
$10.76
-0.25 (-2.27%)
▼
5d:
-1.28%
30d:
-7.24%
90d:
-11.95%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 23, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GDEV shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: GDEV shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.45
Based on 8.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.29
41.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 3.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GDEV is currently trading at $10.76, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.89 to $11.67. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 2.1) compared to its historical average (3.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 17.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 20.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GDEV is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $10.03, while resistance sits at $12.25.
Market Sentiment: GDEV scores 29/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $70.00 (+535.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GDEV is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $10.03, while resistance sits at $12.25.
Market Sentiment: GDEV scores 29/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $70.00 (+535.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$10.89 -
$11.67
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (29/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 535.8% below Wall St target ($70.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.89 -
$11.67
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.03
Resistance Level
$12.25
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
2.11
Wall Street Target
$70.00
(+535.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-22.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
20.0%
Profit Margin
19.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-17.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
2.1 vs 3.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-17.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.91
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$8.92
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$8.03
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→4)
$14.05
(+28%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 13.8%)
$156.45
(+1321%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 2.1, Growth: 13.8%)
$16.21
(+47%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.8, Growth: 13.8%)
$13.78
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (3x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 2.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.11
Bull Case
$15.49
(+41%)
Analyst growth 26.8%, PE expands to 3.0
Base Case
$14.08
(+28%)
Market implied 26.8%, PE stable at 2.7
Bear Case
$7.55
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 2.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 2.1 to 3.7
Stabilization Target:
$19.28
(+75.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+75.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 2:15 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:15 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:15 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GDEV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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