HCA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HCA - HCA Healthcare, Inc.
$429.19
22.92 (5.64%)
▲
5d:
+6.06%
30d:
+13.99%
90d:
+9.33%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 23, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 19, 2026 at $407.05 · last confirmed Aug 19, 2026
Strength: 3.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HCA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HCA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$614.03
Based on 6.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$381.27
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HCA is currently trading at $429.19, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $380.72 to $414.84. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.4) is in line with its historical norms (14.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 11.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCA is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $431.40. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: HCA scores 32/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCA is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $431.40. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: HCA scores 32/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$380.72 -
$414.84
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
28.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding HCA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (32/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.6%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($451.48)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$380.72 -
$414.84
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$400.00
Resistance Level
$431.40
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.37
Wall Street Target
$451.48
(+5.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.6%
Profit Margin
8.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.4 vs 14.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$422.32
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$415.57
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$408.92
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→14)
$428.29
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 8.9%)
$831.69
(+94%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.4, Growth: 8.9%)
$553.91
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.4, Growth: 8.9%)
$470.82
(+10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.64 | Current EPS (TTM): $29.78
Bull Case
$481.85
(+12%)
Analyst growth 7.8%, PE expands to 15.0
Base Case
$438.04
(+2%)
Market implied 7.8%, PE stable at 13.6
Bear Case
$276.26
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.4 to 14.0
Stabilization Target:
$449.52
(+4.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 8:31 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:31 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:31 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HCA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
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Advanced HCA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HCA price and gamma walls.
