HSY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HSY - The Hershey Company
$186.46
-1.85 (-0.98%)
▼
5d:
+1.22%
30d:
+8.32%
90d:
-2.06%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HSY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HSY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$345.96
Based on 10.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$214.81
13.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HSY is currently trading at $186.46, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $173.58 to $184.89. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.9) compared to its historical average (21.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 631.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HSY is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $190.46. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $205.81 (+10.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HSY is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $190.46. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $205.81 (+10.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$173.58 -
$184.89
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding HSY? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($205.81)
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$173.58 -
$184.89
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$7.44
(4.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$179.20
Resistance Level
$190.46
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.89
Wall Street Target
$205.81
(+10.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
631.0%
Profit Margin
12.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.9 vs 21.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$178.07
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$170.06
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$162.40
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→22)
$186.56
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 16.3%)
$311.32
(+67%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.9, Growth: 16.3%)
$293.03
(+57%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.1, Growth: 16.3%)
$249.07
(+34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.31
Bull Case
$279.70
(+50%)
Analyst growth 35.0%, PE expands to 28.3
Base Case
$254.27
(+36%)
Market implied 35.0%, PE stable at 25.8
Bear Case
$128.05
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.9 to 21.7
Stabilization Target:
$214.19
(+14.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 5:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:25 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HSY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Steven E Voskuil
SELL
1500 shares
2026-04-20
Steven E Voskuil
SELL
1500 shares
2026-03-18
Jason Reiman
SELL
2000 shares
2026-02-24
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Advanced HSY Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HSY price and gamma walls.
