HSY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HSY - The Hershey Company
$182.28
3.01 (1.68%)
▲
5d:
-0.13%
30d:
-6.42%
90d:
-15.3%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HSY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HSY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$378.27
Based on 10.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$234.87
22.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HSY is currently trading at $182.28, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $176.91 to $191.98. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.0) compared to its historical average (22.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 93.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HSY is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $173.75, while resistance sits at $200.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $217.14 (+21.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HSY is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $173.75, while resistance sits at $200.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $217.14 (+21.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$176.91 -
$191.98
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.1% below Wall St target ($217.14)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$176.91 -
$191.98
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$173.75
Resistance Level
$200.00
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.04
Wall Street Target
$217.14
(+21.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
93.6%
Profit Margin
9.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.0 vs 22.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$165.82
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$153.39
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$141.88
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→23)
$179.34
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 17.8%)
$353.57
(+97%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.0, Growth: 17.8%)
$292.83
(+63%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.3, Growth: 17.8%)
$248.91
(+39%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.82 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.37
Bull Case
$347.89
(+94%)
Analyst growth 85.1%, PE expands to 35.0
Base Case
$316.27
(+76%)
Market implied 85.1%, PE stable at 31.8
Bear Case
$116.21
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.0 to 22.8
Stabilization Target:
$226.59
(+26.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+26.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 1:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HSY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Steven E Voskuil
SELL
1500 shares
2026-04-20
Steven E Voskuil
SELL
1500 shares
2026-03-18
Jason Reiman
SELL
2000 shares
2026-02-24
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