HSY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HSY - The Hershey Company
$175.24
1.58 (0.91%)
▲
5d:
-1.28%
30d:
-0.78%
90d:
-13.38%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
16d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HSY appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -7.8% annual earnings decline despite 94% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HSY appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -7.8% annual earnings decline despite 94% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$367.86
Based on 10.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$228.41
23.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HSY is currently trading at $175.24, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $174.18 to $181.64. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.5) compared to its historical average (22.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 93.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HSY is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $173.75. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $214.10 (+23.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HSY is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $173.75. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $214.10 (+23.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$174.18 -
$181.64
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.3% below Wall St target ($214.10)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$174.18 -
$181.64
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$173.75
Resistance Level
$200.00
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.54
Wall Street Target
$214.10
(+23.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
93.6%
Profit Margin
9.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.5 vs 22.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$160.11
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$147.63
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$136.11
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→22)
$173.85
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 17.5%)
$349.56
(+101%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.5, Growth: 17.5%)
$281.47
(+62%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.9, Growth: 17.5%)
$239.25
(+38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.29
Bull Case
$353.44
(+104%)
Analyst growth 87.2%, PE expands to 35.7
Base Case
$321.31
(+85%)
Market implied 87.2%, PE stable at 32.5
Bear Case
$116.72
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.5 to 22.4
Stabilization Target:
$221.81
(+27.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 4:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:20 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:20 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HSY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Steven E Voskuil
SELL
1500 shares
2026-04-20
Steven E Voskuil
SELL
1500 shares
2026-03-18
Jason Reiman
SELL
2000 shares
2026-02-24
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