HSY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HSY - The Hershey Company
$175.05
-2.18 (-1.23%)
▼
5d:
+0.43%
30d:
-2.03%
90d:
-5.76%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HSY appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.8% annual earnings decline despite 94% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HSY appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.8% annual earnings decline despite 94% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$354.28
Based on 10.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$219.98
20.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HSY is currently trading at $175.05, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $171.87 to $180.13. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.8) compared to its historical average (22.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 93.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HSY is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $168.75, while resistance sits at $188.37.
Market Sentiment: HSY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $207.71 (+18.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HSY is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $168.75, while resistance sits at $188.37.
Market Sentiment: HSY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $207.71 (+18.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$171.87 -
$180.13
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($207.71)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$171.87 -
$180.13
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$168.75
Resistance Level
$188.37
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.75
Wall Street Target
$207.71
(+18.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
93.6%
Profit Margin
9.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.8 vs 22.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$163.15
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$152.05
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$141.71
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→22)
$175.62
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 16.8%)
$325.73
(+86%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.8, Growth: 16.8%)
$278.95
(+59%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.1, Growth: 16.8%)
$237.10
(+35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.21 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.18
Bull Case
$371.11
(+112%)
Analyst growth 90.4%, PE expands to 37.6
Base Case
$337.37
(+93%)
Market implied 90.4%, PE stable at 34.2
Bear Case
$120.52
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.8 to 22.0
Stabilization Target:
$216.93
(+23.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+23.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 1:01 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:01 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:01 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HSY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Steven E Voskuil
SELL
1500 shares
2026-04-20
Steven E Voskuil
SELL
1500 shares
2026-03-18
Jason Reiman
SELL
2000 shares
2026-02-24
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