The Hershey (HSY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HSY - The Hershey Company
$169.64
-6.00 (-3.42%)
âŧ
5d:
-0.7%
30d:
+1.65%
90d:
-5.85%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HSY is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -6.1% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HSY is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -6.1% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$328.46
Based on 10.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$203.95
16.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HSY is currently trading at $169.64, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $161.63 to $170.48. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.2) compared to its historical average (20.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 631.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HSY is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $160.67, while resistance sits at $175.75. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: HSY scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $197.05 (+16.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HSY is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $160.67, while resistance sits at $175.75. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: HSY scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $197.05 (+16.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$161.63 -
$170.48
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
35.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding HSY? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($197.05)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$161.63 -
$170.48
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$160.67
Resistance Level
$175.75
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.24
Wall Street Target
$197.05
(+16.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
631.0%
Profit Margin
12.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.2 vs 20.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$159.29
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$149.58
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$140.45
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17â21)
$169.49
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 16.0%)
$305.39
(+80%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.2, Growth: 16.0%)
$265.05
(+56%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.7, Growth: 16.0%)
$225.29
(+33%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.99 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.32
Bull Case
$259.77
(+53%)
Analyst growth 34.5%, PE expands to 26.4
Base Case
$236.15
(+39%)
Market implied 34.5%, PE stable at 24.0
Bear Case
$119.44
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.2 to 20.8
Stabilization Target:
$204.71
(+20.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 11:48 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:48 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HSY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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