The Hershey (HSY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HSY - The Hershey Company
$160.19
0.89 (0.56%)
▲
5d:
-3.71%
30d:
-9.72%
90d:
-9.76%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HSY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HSY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$334.52
Based on 10.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$207.71
22.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HSY is currently trading at $160.19, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $164.84 to $179.99. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.2) compared to its historical average (21.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 631.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HSY is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $156.16. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $204.10 (+27.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HSY is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $156.16. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $204.10 (+27.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$164.84 -
$179.99
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding HSY? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (48/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.4% below Wall St target ($204.10)
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$164.84 -
$179.99
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$156.16
Resistance Level
$170.50
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.25
Wall Street Target
$204.10
(+27.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
631.0%
Profit Margin
12.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.3 vs 21.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$146.89
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$134.70
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$123.52
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→21)
$160.41
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 16.1%)
$315.04
(+97%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.2, Growth: 16.1%)
$250.92
(+57%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.8, Growth: 16.1%)
$213.28
(+33%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.39
Bull Case
$233.78
(+46%)
Analyst growth 33.4%, PE expands to 23.7
Base Case
$212.52
(+33%)
Market implied 33.4%, PE stable at 21.6
Bear Case
$108.32
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.2 to 21.1
Stabilization Target:
$208.03
(+29.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+29.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 9:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HSY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Steven E Voskuil
SELL
1500 shares
2026-04-20
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