IRWD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
IRWD - Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc. - Class A
$4.31
-0.12 (-2.60%)
▼
5d:
+13.29%
30d:
-1.71%
90d:
-6.21%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: IRWD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: IRWD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$10.94
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.79
36.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 3.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: IRWD is currently trading at $4.30, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.78 to $4.39. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 2.9) compared to its historical average (3.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1046.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IRWD is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $3.55, while resistance sits at $4.59.
Market Sentiment: IRWD has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.35 (+50.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IRWD is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $3.55, while resistance sits at $4.59.
Market Sentiment: IRWD has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.35 (+50.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$3.78 -
$4.39
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 50.1% below Wall St target ($6.35)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$3.78 -
$4.39
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.55
Resistance Level
$4.59
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
2.94
Wall Street Target
$6.35
(+50.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
158.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1046.8%
Profit Margin
28.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
2.9 vs 3.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.87
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$3.53
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$3.23
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 3→4)
$4.29
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 32.1%)
$68.83
(+1527%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 2.9, Growth: 32.1%)
$9.75
(+131%)
Bear:
(PE: 2.5, Growth: 32.1%)
$8.29
(+96%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (3x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 5.74 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.65
Bull Case
$8.21
(+86%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 6.3
Base Case
$7.46
(+69%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 5.7
Bear Case
$2.54
(-43%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 2.9 to 3.9
Stabilization Target:
$5.62
(+32.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+32.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 10:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:24 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is IRWD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Alexander J Denner
SELL
6730800 shares
2026-03-17
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