MGPI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MGPI - MGP Ingredients Inc
$16.90
0.65 (4.00%)
▲
5d:
+3.68%
30d:
-6.63%
90d:
-1.69%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MGPI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MGPI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.30
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.16
27.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MGPI is currently trading at $16.90, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.23 to $17.91. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.0) compared to its historical average (9.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGPI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $16.01, while resistance sits at $18.64. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.40 (+68.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGPI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $16.01, while resistance sits at $18.64. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.40 (+68.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$16.23 -
$17.91
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 68.0% below Wall St target ($28.40)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.23 -
$17.91
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.01
Resistance Level
$18.64
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.03
Wall Street Target
$28.40
(+68.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-12.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-33.6%
Profit Margin
-46.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.0 vs 9.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.21
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$15.54
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$14.91
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$16.89
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 29.7%)
$100.12
(+492%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.0, Growth: 29.7%)
$36.91
(+118%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.8, Growth: 29.7%)
$31.37
(+86%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.0 to 9.1
Stabilization Target:
$19.16
(+13.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 5:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:46 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MGPI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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