MGPI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MGPI - MGP Ingredients Inc
$17.70
-0.04 (-0.23%)
▼
5d:
+0.06%
30d:
+1.96%
90d:
-11.23%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MGPI shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MGPI shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.85
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.88
22.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MGPI is currently trading at $17.70, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.74 to $18.12. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.4) is in line with its historical norms (9.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGPI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MGPI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.40 (+54.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGPI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MGPI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.40 (+54.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$16.74 -
$18.12
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 54.9% below Wall St target ($27.40)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.74 -
$18.12
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.35
Resistance Level
$20.42
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.41
Wall Street Target
$27.40
(+54.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-12.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-33.6%
Profit Margin
-46.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.4 vs 9.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.32
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$16.95
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$16.60
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$17.76
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.8, Growth: 29.8%)
$95.65
(+441%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.4, Growth: 29.8%)
$38.67
(+119%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.2, Growth: 29.8%)
$32.87
(+86%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.4 to 9.0
Stabilization Target:
$18.92
(+7.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 3:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:38 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:38 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MGPI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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