MTB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTB - M&T Bank Corp.
$240.34
2.09 (0.88%)
▲
5d:
-5.41%
30d:
-2.29%
90d:
+13.19%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 15, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MTB shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MTB shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$310.07
Based on 6.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$192.53
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTB is currently trading at $240.34, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $245.56 to $253.16. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.4) is in line with its historical norms (10.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTB is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $238.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTB is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $238.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$245.56 -
$253.16
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($257.25)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$245.56 -
$253.16
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$238.13
Resistance Level
$255.95
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.41
Wall Street Target
$257.25
(+7.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.5%
Profit Margin
32.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.2% premium
PE vs Historical
11.4 vs 10.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$245.63
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$251.03
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$256.55
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$240.63
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 9.2%)
$549.96
(+129%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.4, Growth: 9.2%)
$312.60
(+30%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.7, Growth: 9.2%)
$265.71
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.96 | Current EPS (TTM): $18.39
Bull Case
$300.24
(+25%)
Analyst growth 14.6%, PE expands to 14.3
Base Case
$272.94
(+14%)
Market implied 14.6%, PE stable at 13.0
Bear Case
$162.01
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 7:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:06 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Michael A Wisler
SELL
8237 shares
2026-02-26
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Advanced MTB Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MTB price and gamma walls.
