NXST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NXST - Nexstar Media Group, Inc. Common Stock
$192.49
1.96 (1.03%)
▲
5d:
+3.6%
30d:
+6.3%
90d:
-4.88%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NXST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NXST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$106.28
Based on -12.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$65.99
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NXST is currently trading at $192.49, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $174.82 to $189.36. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.0) compared to its historical average (9.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 51.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NXST is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $175.84, while resistance sits at $198.96.
Market Sentiment: NXST has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $251.62 (+30.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NXST is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $175.84, while resistance sits at $198.96.
Market Sentiment: NXST has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $251.62 (+30.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$174.82 -
$189.36
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 30.7% below Wall St target ($251.62)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$174.82 -
$189.36
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$175.84
Resistance Level
$198.96
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.98
Wall Street Target
$251.63
(+30.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
51.0%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.0 vs 9.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$184.21
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$176.29
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$168.71
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$192.44
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: -29.4%)
$364.62
(+89%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.0, Growth: -29.4%)
$140.33
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.8, Growth: -29.4%)
$119.28
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 40.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.72
Bull Case
$419.17
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 44.4
Base Case
$381.06
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 40.4
Bear Case
$129.56
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.0 to 9.1
Stabilization Target:
$219.56
(+14.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 6:37 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:37 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:37 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NXST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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