Nexstar Media Group (NXST) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NXST - Nexstar Media Group, Inc. Common Stock
$169.09
-0.88 (-0.52%)
▼
5d:
-4.83%
30d:
-8.67%
90d:
-3.11%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NXST shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NXST shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$98.31
Based on -13.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$61.04
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NXST is currently trading at $169.09, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $175.35 to $190.72. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.3) compared to its historical average (9.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 18.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NXST is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $158.81, while resistance sits at $184.06.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $246.75 (+45.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NXST is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $158.81, while resistance sits at $184.06.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $246.75 (+45.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$175.35 -
$190.72
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (47/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 45.9% below Wall St target ($246.75)
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$175.35 -
$190.72
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$158.81
Resistance Level
$184.06
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.26
Wall Street Target
$246.75
(+45.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
62.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
18.0%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.3 vs 9.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$157.59
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$146.87
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$136.88
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→9)
$169.79
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -30.4%)
$342.66
(+103%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.3, Growth: -30.4%)
$123.26
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.2, Growth: -30.4%)
$104.77
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.30 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.43
Bull Case
$373.93
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 34.4
Base Case
$339.94
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 31.3
Bear Case
$115.58
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.3 to 9.0
Stabilization Target:
$209.73
(+24.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+24.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 3:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:10 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NXST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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