PCTY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PCTY - Paylocity Holding Corporation Common Stock
$153.34
0.98 (0.64%)
▲
5d:
+3.41%
30d:
+27.15%
90d:
+37.25%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PCTY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PCTY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$169.57
Based on 5.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$105.29
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PCTY is currently trading at $153.34, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $128.43 to $150.13. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 17.5) compared to its historical average (14.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PCTY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $154.10. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $171.53 (+12.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PCTY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $154.10. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $171.53 (+12.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$128.43 -
$150.13
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (47/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($171.53)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.7% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$128.43 -
$150.13
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$140.02
Resistance Level
$154.10
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.54
Wall Street Target
$171.53
(+12.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
27.6%
Profit Margin
15.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.7% premium
PE vs Historical
17.5 vs 14.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$161.04
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$170.22
(+12%)
3-Year Target
$179.93
(+18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$151.83
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 7.4%)
$216.11
(+42%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.5, Growth: 7.4%)
$188.86
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.8, Growth: 7.4%)
$159.36
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.92 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.99
Bull Case
$285.92
(+87%)
Analyst growth 74.1%, PE expands to 32.9
Base Case
$259.92
(+70%)
Market implied 74.1%, PE stable at 29.9
Bear Case
$101.53
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 10:57 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:57 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:57 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PCTY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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