PCTY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PCTY - Paylocity Holding Corporation Common Stock
$137.90
1.19 (0.87%)
▲
5d:
+10.08%
30d:
+23.86%
90d:
+30.72%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
TODAY
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PCTY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PCTY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$168.43
Based on 5.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$104.58
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PCTY is currently trading at $137.90, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $109.65 to $131.82. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.9) is in line with its historical norms (14.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PCTY is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $119.02, while resistance sits at $149.04.
Market Sentiment: PCTY has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $153.26 (+11.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PCTY is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $119.02, while resistance sits at $149.04.
Market Sentiment: PCTY has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $153.26 (+11.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$109.65 -
$131.82
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($153.26)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$109.65 -
$131.82
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$119.02
Resistance Level
$149.05
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.87
Wall Street Target
$153.26
(+11.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
27.3%
Profit Margin
14.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.6% premium
PE vs Historical
15.9 vs 14.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$141.48
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$145.16
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$148.93
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$137.92
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 7.4%)
$223.22
(+62%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.9, Growth: 7.4%)
$170.93
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.5, Growth: 7.4%)
$145.29
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.93 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.42
Bull Case
$295.55
(+114%)
Analyst growth 96.5%, PE expands to 34.0
Base Case
$268.68
(+95%)
Market implied 96.5%, PE stable at 30.9
Bear Case
$92.96
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 11:50 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:50 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:50 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PCTY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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