PCTY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PCTY - Paylocity Holding Corporation Common Stock
$124.50
6.00 (5.06%)
▲
5d:
+9.43%
30d:
+11.52%
90d:
+30.91%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
20d
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1 traders called PCTY this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: PCTY is 7.3% above its trading range ($116.05). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: PCTY is 7.3% above its trading range ($116.05). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$168.86
Based on 5.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$104.85
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PCTY is currently trading at $124.50, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $103.02 to $116.05. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.3) is in line with its historical norms (14.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 27.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PCTY is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $124.80. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: PCTY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $153.44 (+23.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PCTY is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $124.80. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: PCTY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $153.44 (+23.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$103.02 -
$116.05
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+7.3% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 23.2% below Wall St target ($153.44)
- CAUTION: Extended 7.3% above its trading range - wait for pullback
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$103.02 -
$116.05
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$102.87
Resistance Level
$124.80
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.33
Wall Street Target
$153.44
(+23.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
27.3%
Profit Margin
14.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.3 vs 14.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$123.38
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$122.27
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$121.17
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→15)
$124.31
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 7.5%)
$234.93
(+89%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.3, Growth: 7.5%)
$154.56
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.2, Growth: 7.5%)
$131.37
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.68
Bull Case
$242.00
(+94%)
Analyst growth 85.7%, PE expands to 27.9
Base Case
$220.00
(+77%)
Market implied 85.7%, PE stable at 25.3
Bear Case
$80.58
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.3 to 14.7
Stabilization Target:
$127.72
(+2.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 10:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:33 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PCTY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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