Paylocity (PCTY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PCTY - Paylocity Holding Corporation Common Stock
$177.67
8.34 (4.93%)
▲
5d:
+6.87%
30d:
+23.74%
90d:
+41.83%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PCTY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PCTY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$176.45
Based on 5.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$109.56
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PCTY is currently trading at $177.67, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $142.03 to $162.06. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 20.4) compared to its historical average (15.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 10.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PCTY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $178.13. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: PCTY scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PCTY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $178.13. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: PCTY scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$142.03 -
$162.06
Company Quality Score
31/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
22.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+9.6% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (5/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.9%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($174.10)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 10.0% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 31/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$142.03 -
$162.06
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$152.54
Resistance Level
$178.13
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.45
Wall Street Target
$174.10
(-2.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
27.6%
Profit Margin
15.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+10.0% premium
PE vs Historical
20.5 vs 15.4
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+10.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$195.44
(+10%)
2-Year Target
$214.98
(+21%)
3-Year Target
$236.48
(+33%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$178.06
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.5, Growth: 7.4%)
$220.23
(+24%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 7.4%)
$213.85
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.4, Growth: 7.4%)
$165.82
(-7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (35x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.90
Bull Case
$330.21
(+86%)
Analyst growth 77.3%, PE expands to 38.0
Base Case
$300.19
(+69%)
Market implied 77.3%, PE stable at 34.6
Bear Case
$115.14
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 12:49 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:49 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PCTY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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