Paylocity (PCTY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PCTY - Paylocity Holding Corporation Common Stock
$141.66
-1.20 (-0.84%)
▼
5d:
-8.27%
30d:
-2.75%
90d:
+30.89%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PCTY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PCTY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$173.01
Based on 5.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$107.43
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PCTY is currently trading at $141.66, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $144.86 to $155.04. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.3) is in line with its historical norms (15.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PCTY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $140.39. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PCTY scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $172.00 (+21.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PCTY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $140.39. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PCTY scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $172.00 (+21.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$144.86 -
$155.04
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.4% below Wall St target ($172.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$144.86 -
$155.04
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$140.39
Resistance Level
$161.93
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.31
Wall Street Target
$172.00
(+21.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
27.6%
Profit Margin
15.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.7% premium
PE vs Historical
16.3 vs 15.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$145.48
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$149.41
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$153.45
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$142.08
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 7.4%)
$217.19
(+53%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.3, Growth: 7.4%)
$175.60
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.9, Growth: 7.4%)
$149.26
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.92 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.94
Bull Case
$276.33
(+95%)
Analyst growth 75.8%, PE expands to 31.8
Base Case
$251.21
(+77%)
Market implied 75.8%, PE stable at 28.9
Bear Case
$97.14
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 12:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:05 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:05 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PCTY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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