PROV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PROV - Provident Financial Hldgs
$17.25
0.04 (0.23%)
▲
5d:
+0.23%
30d:
+1.11%
90d:
+0.52%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 27, 2026
13d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PROV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PROV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.49
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.48
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PROV is currently trading at $17.25, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.96 to $17.21. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 16.6) compared to its historical average (13.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 8.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PROV is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $17.36. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PROV has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PROV is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $17.36. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PROV has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$16.96 -
$17.21
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($16.75)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 8.0% growth with -11.2% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.96 -
$17.21
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.44
Resistance Level
$17.36
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.59
Wall Street Target
$16.75
(-2.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-11.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-24.5%
Profit Margin
15.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+8.0% premium
PE vs Historical
16.6 vs 13.2
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+8.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.63
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$20.12
(+17%)
3-Year Target
$21.73
(+26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$17.29
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 8.3%)
$28.80
(+67%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.6, Growth: 8.3%)
$21.93
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.2, Growth: 8.3%)
$17.45
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.93
Bull Case
$21.17
(+23%)
Analyst growth 11.8%, PE expands to 20.4
Base Case
$19.25
(+12%)
Market implied 11.8%, PE stable at 18.5
Bear Case
$11.70
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 5:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PROV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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