PROV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PROV - Provident Financial Hldgs
$17.98
0.08 (0.45%)
â˛
5d:
+0.0%
30d:
+4.47%
90d:
+4.41%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: PROV is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 7.9% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: PROV is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 7.9% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.19
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.92
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PROV is currently trading at $17.98, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.29 to $18.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 17.2) compared to its historical average (13.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PROV is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.79. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PROV scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PROV is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.79. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PROV scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$17.29 -
$18.03
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
37.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($18.50)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 7.9% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$17.29 -
$18.03
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.79
Resistance Level
$18.47
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.21
Wall Street Target
$18.50
(+3.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
41.6%
Profit Margin
16.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.9% premium
PE vs Historical
17.2 vs 13.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.31
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$20.84
(+16%)
3-Year Target
$22.49
(+26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17â14)
PE COMPRESSION
$17.90
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 8.3%)
$26.54
(+48%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.2, Growth: 8.3%)
$22.76
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.7, Growth: 8.3%)
$18.12
(+1%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.35 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.03
Bull Case
$19.85
(+10%)
Analyst growth 1.0%, PE expands to 19.1
Base Case
$18.04
(+0%)
Market implied 1.0%, PE stable at 17.4
Bear Case
$12.15
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 7:58 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:58 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:58 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PROV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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