Provident Financial Hldgs (PROV) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PROV - Provident Financial Hldgs
$18.25
0.23 (1.28%)
▲
5d:
-0.65%
30d:
-0.33%
90d:
+6.04%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PROV trades at premium valuation expecting 7.2% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: PROV trades at premium valuation expecting 7.2% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.89
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.35
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PROV is currently trading at $18.25, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.27 to $18.63. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 17.6) compared to its historical average (14.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PROV is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PROV is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$18.27 -
$18.63
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($18.50)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 7.2% growth which is achievable
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (55/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$18.27 -
$18.63
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.02
Resistance Level
$18.75
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.55
Wall Street Target
$18.50
(+1.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
41.6%
Profit Margin
16.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.2% premium
PE vs Historical
17.6 vs 14.2
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.56
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$20.97
(+15%)
3-Year Target
$22.48
(+23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→14)
PE COMPRESSION
$18.19
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 8.3%)
$26.97
(+48%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.5, Growth: 8.3%)
$23.20
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.2, Growth: 8.3%)
$18.78
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 17.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.03
Bull Case
$20.01
(+10%)
Analyst growth 1.0%, PE expands to 19.2
Base Case
$18.19
(0%)
Market implied 1.0%, PE stable at 17.5
Bear Case
$12.25
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 8:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:10 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:10 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PROV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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