PROV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PROV - Provident Financial Hldgs
$16.92
0.08 (0.48%)
▲
5d:
-1.11%
30d:
-1.11%
90d:
+5.55%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PROV shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PROV shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$22.94
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.24
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PROV is currently trading at $16.92, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.90 to $17.14. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.9) is in line with its historical norms (13.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PROV is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PROV has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PROV is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PROV has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$16.90 -
$17.14
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($16.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.90 -
$17.14
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.44
Resistance Level
$17.36
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.92
Wall Street Target
$16.50
(-2.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-11.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-24.5%
Profit Margin
15.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.9 vs 13.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.90
(0%)
2-Year Target
$16.89
(0%)
3-Year Target
$16.87
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→13)
$16.98
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 8.3%)
$36.21
(+114%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.9, Growth: 8.3%)
$21.47
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.0, Growth: 8.3%)
$18.25
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.11 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.93
Bull Case
$26.09
(+54%)
Analyst growth 40.9%, PE expands to 19.9
Base Case
$23.72
(+40%)
Market implied 40.9%, PE stable at 18.1
Bear Case
$11.45
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.9 to 13.0
Stabilization Target:
$17.03
(+0.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 2:22 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:22 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:22 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PROV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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