Provident Financial Hldgs (PROV) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PROV - Provident Financial Hldgs
$18.20
0.00 (0.00%)
▲
5d:
+0.5%
30d:
-0.87%
90d:
+5.69%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PROV shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PROV shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.31
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.61
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PROV is currently trading at $18.20, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.14 to $18.51. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 17.5) compared to its historical average (14.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PROV is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.05. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PROV scores 73/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PROV is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.05. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PROV scores 73/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$18.14 -
$18.51
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (73/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($18.50)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 6.6% growth which is achievable
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 73/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$18.14 -
$18.51
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.05
Resistance Level
$18.50
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.50
Wall Street Target
$18.50
(+1.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
41.6%
Profit Margin
16.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.6% premium
PE vs Historical
17.5 vs 14.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.40
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$20.68
(+14%)
3-Year Target
$22.05
(+21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$18.27
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 8.3%)
$26.26
(+44%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.5, Growth: 8.3%)
$23.14
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.5, Growth: 8.3%)
$19.17
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.61 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.03
Bull Case
$20.15
(+11%)
Analyst growth 1.0%, PE expands to 19.4
Base Case
$18.32
(+1%)
Market implied 1.0%, PE stable at 17.6
Bear Case
$12.34
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 11:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:29 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:29 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PROV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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