PROV
Provident Financial Hldgs
SAVINGS INSTITUTION, FEDERALLY CHARTERED
Best Savings Banks Stocks 2026 →
Provident Financial Hldgs (PROV) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$18.10
-0.02 (-0.11%)
▼
5d:
-0.55%
30d:
+0.0%
90d:
+0.5%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence (74%)
Quality Score
57/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$18.11 – $18.27
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
17.4x
STRETCHED
vs 14.6x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$18.50
+2.1% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$18.00 / $18.99
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 HOLD: PROV trades at premium valuation expecting 5.9% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.45
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.70
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PROV is currently trading at $18.10, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.11 to $18.27. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 17.4) compared to its historical average (14.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PROV is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PROV is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$18.11 -
$18.27
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$18.11 -
$18.27
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$18.00
Resistance Level
$18.99
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (50/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($18.50)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.9% growth which is achievable
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (50/100) — watch for confirmation
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.42
Wall Street Target
$18.50
(+2.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.5%
Profit Margin
16.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.9% premium
PE vs Historical
17.4 vs 14.6
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.19
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$20.32
(+12%)
3-Year Target
$21.52
(+19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$18.03
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 8.3%)
$26.26
(+45%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.4, Growth: 8.3%)
$23.04
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.6, Growth: 8.3%)
$19.31
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.03
Bull Case
$20.19
(+11%)
Analyst growth 1.0%, PE expands to 19.4
Base Case
$18.35
(+1%)
Market implied 1.0%, PE stable at 17.7
Bear Case
$12.36
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Last updated: November 11, 2026 10:34 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:34 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:34 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PROV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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