Provident Financial Hldgs (PROV) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PROV - Provident Financial Hldgs
$18.63
-0.08 (-0.43%)
▼
5d:
+0.54%
30d:
+3.39%
90d:
+9.78%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PROV shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PROV shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.61
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.18
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PROV is currently trading at $18.63, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.94 to $18.49. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 17.9) compared to its historical average (14.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 8.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PROV is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $18.99. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PROV scores 26/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PROV is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $18.99. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PROV scores 26/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$17.94 -
$18.49
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
22.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (26/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($18.50)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 8.6% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$17.94 -
$18.49
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.07
Resistance Level
$18.99
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.91
Wall Street Target
$18.50
(-0.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
41.6%
Profit Margin
16.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+8.6% premium
PE vs Historical
17.9 vs 14.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+8.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.23
(+9%)
2-Year Target
$21.97
(+18%)
3-Year Target
$23.86
(+28%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→14)
PE COMPRESSION
$18.65
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 8.3%)
$26.67
(+43%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.9, Growth: 8.3%)
$23.69
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.0, Growth: 8.3%)
$18.51
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.03
Bull Case
$20.78
(+12%)
Analyst growth 1.0%, PE expands to 20.0
Base Case
$18.89
(+1%)
Market implied 1.0%, PE stable at 18.2
Bear Case
$12.72
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 5:26 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:26 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:26 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PROV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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