TMP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TMP - Tompkins Financial Corporation
$91.92
1.62 (1.79%)
▲
5d:
+1.48%
30d:
+6.73%
90d:
+21.2%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 24, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TMP is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: TMP is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$111.98
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$69.53
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TMP is currently trading at $91.92, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $84.75 to $90.16. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.3) compared to its historical average (10.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMP is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $90.25. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TMP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMP is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $90.25. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TMP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$84.75 -
$90.16
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($88.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$84.75 -
$90.16
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$83.42
Resistance Level
$90.25
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.28
Wall Street Target
$88.50
(-3.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.8%
Profit Margin
38.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.5% premium
PE vs Historical
11.3 vs 10.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$95.14
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$98.47
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$101.91
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$92.17
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 8.3%)
$225.51
(+145%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.3, Growth: 8.3%)
$116.78
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.6, Growth: 8.3%)
$99.26
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.72 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.69
Bull Case
$69.25
(-25%)
Analyst growth -30.3%, PE expands to 8.5
Base Case
$62.96
(-32%)
Market implied -30.3%, PE stable at 7.7
Bear Case
$61.40
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 10:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TMP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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