Tompkins Financial (TMP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TMP - Tompkins Financial Corporation
$98.83
0.53 (0.54%)
▲
5d:
+0.14%
30d:
-1.49%
90d:
+8.38%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 23, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TMP is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: TMP is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$113.88
Based on 5.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$70.71
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TMP is currently trading at $98.83, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $97.11 to $99.98. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.9) compared to its historical average (10.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $100.55. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $100.55. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$97.11 -
$99.98
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (53/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($104.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (53/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$97.11 -
$99.98
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$94.79
Resistance Level
$100.55
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.88
Wall Street Target
$104.50
(+5.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
36.0%
Profit Margin
39.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.8% premium
PE vs Historical
11.9 vs 10.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$102.59
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$106.48
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$110.53
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$98.63
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 6.5%)
$202.49
(+105%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.9, Growth: 6.5%)
$119.25
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.1, Growth: 6.5%)
$101.37
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.93 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.40
Bull Case
$72.55
(-27%)
Analyst growth -32.9%, PE expands to 8.7
Base Case
$65.96
(-33%)
Market implied -32.9%, PE stable at 7.9
Bear Case
$66.84
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 12:53 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:53 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:53 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TMP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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