Tompkins Financial (TMP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TMP - Tompkins Financial Corporation
$101.20
0.42 (0.42%)
▲
5d:
+3.71%
30d:
+3.12%
90d:
+1.52%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 23, 2026
0d
Get Alerted When TMP Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TMP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TMP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$108.52
Based on 4.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$67.38
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TMP is currently trading at $101.20, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $96.52 to $99.22. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 12.4) compared to its historical average (10.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMP is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $102.80. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TMP scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMP is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $102.80. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TMP scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$96.52 -
$99.22
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
24.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($104.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$96.52 -
$99.22
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$94.41
Resistance Level
$102.80
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.40
Wall Street Target
$104.50
(+3.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
36.0%
Profit Margin
39.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.8% premium
PE vs Historical
12.4 vs 10.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$106.06
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$111.15
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$116.48
(+15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$101.44
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 4.5%)
$185.19
(+83%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.4, Growth: 4.5%)
$115.65
(+14%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.5, Growth: 4.5%)
$98.30
(-3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.00
Bull Case
$75.38
(-26%)
Analyst growth -32.0%, PE expands to 9.2
Base Case
$68.53
(-32%)
Market implied -32.0%, PE stable at 8.4
Bear Case
$68.53
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 9:53 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:53 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:53 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is TMP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Banks - Regional Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Banks - Regional by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
CFG
Citizens Financial Group… |
STRONG BUY
20 analysts |
$78 | 70 BUY |
|
USB
U.S. Bancorp |
BUY
24 analysts |
$69 | 52 HOLD |
|
PNFP
Pinnacle Financial Partn… |
STRONG BUY
22 analysts |
$119 | 43 HOLD |
|
HBAN
Huntington Bancshares In… |
STRONG BUY
21 analysts |
$19 | 58 HOLD |
|
WAL
Western Alliance Bancorp… |
STRONG BUY
16 analysts |
$91 | 60 BUY |
