TMP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TMP - Tompkins Financial Corporation
$97.91
0.79 (0.81%)
▲
5d:
-3.26%
30d:
+5.68%
90d:
+13.69%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 23, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TMP is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: TMP is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$112.81
Based on 5.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$70.05
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TMP is currently trading at $97.91, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $95.63 to $101.20. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.7) compared to its historical average (10.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $96.15. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $96.15. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$95.63 -
$101.20
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (41/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($104.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (41/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$95.63 -
$101.20
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$96.15
Resistance Level
$102.59
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.67
Wall Street Target
$104.50
(+7.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
36.0%
Profit Margin
39.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.5% premium
PE vs Historical
11.7 vs 10.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$100.52
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$104.04
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$107.68
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$96.86
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 6.5%)
$201.49
(+108%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.7, Growth: 6.5%)
$117.19
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.9, Growth: 6.5%)
$99.61
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.23
Bull Case
$72.64
(-26%)
Analyst growth -32.0%, PE expands to 8.7
Base Case
$66.04
(-33%)
Market implied -32.0%, PE stable at 7.9
Bear Case
$66.01
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 5:28 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:28 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:28 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TMP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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