Tompkins Financial (TMP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TMP - Tompkins Financial Corporation
$98.89
1.88 (1.94%)
▲
5d:
-0.68%
30d:
+1.36%
90d:
+4.49%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 23, 2026
18d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TMP is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: TMP is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$114.96
Based on 5.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$71.38
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TMP is currently trading at $98.89, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $96.94 to $98.90. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.9) compared to its historical average (10.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $100.33. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TMP scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $100.33. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TMP scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$96.94 -
$98.90
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (74/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($104.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 14% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$96.94 -
$98.90
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$94.27
Resistance Level
$100.33
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.89
Wall Street Target
$104.50
(+5.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
36.0%
Profit Margin
39.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.6% premium
PE vs Historical
11.9 vs 10.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$102.45
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$106.14
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$109.96
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$98.99
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 6.5%)
$204.80
(+107%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.9, Growth: 6.5%)
$119.33
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.1, Growth: 6.5%)
$101.43
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.87 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.33
Bull Case
$72.01
(-27%)
Analyst growth -32.5%, PE expands to 8.7
Base Case
$65.46
(-34%)
Market implied -32.5%, PE stable at 7.9
Bear Case
$65.97
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 7:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:01 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:01 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TMP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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