TWLO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TWLO - Twilio Inc.
$184.04
0.40 (0.22%)
▲
5d:
-8.89%
30d:
+0.4%
90d:
+44.81%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TWLO trades at premium valuation expecting 5.1% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: TWLO trades at premium valuation expecting 5.1% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$254.27
Based on 10.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$157.88
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TWLO is currently trading at $184.04, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $184.52 to $216.96. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 27.7) compared to its historical average (23.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TWLO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $180.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TWLO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $180.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$184.52 -
$216.96
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TWLO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($197.50)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 5.1% growth expectation is conservative given 375% recent growth
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.9% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$184.52 -
$216.96
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$180.91
Resistance Level
$238.48
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.70
Wall Street Target
$197.50
(+7.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
375.0%
Profit Margin
2.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.1% premium
PE vs Historical
27.7 vs 23.9
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$193.01
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$202.85
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$213.19
(+16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28→24)
PE COMPRESSION
$183.98
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.7, Growth: 16.0%)
$286.84
(+56%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 16.0%)
$225.57
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 16.0%)
$191.74
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (28x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 33.11 | Forward EPS (Implied): $5.55
Bull Case
$221.75
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 34.8
Base Case
$183.64
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 33.1
Bear Case
$140.48
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 29.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 3:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TWLO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
11
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Erika Rottenberg
SELL
1800 shares
2026-04-21
Khozema Shipchandler
SELL
15715 shares
2026-04-06
Aidan Viggiano
SELL
9389 shares
2026-04-02
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Advanced TWLO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TWLO price and gamma walls.
