Twilio (TWLO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TWLO - Twilio Inc.
$294.58
-6.69 (-2.22%)
▼
5d:
+6.81%
30d:
+29.91%
90d:
+40.89%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TWLO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TWLO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$263.45
Based on 9.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$163.58
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TWLO is currently trading at $294.58, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $224.87 to $279.68. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 43.4) compared to its historical average (27.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 16.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TWLO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $244.14, while resistance sits at $305.95.
Market Sentiment: TWLO scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $263.04. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TWLO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $244.14, while resistance sits at $305.95.
Market Sentiment: TWLO scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $263.04. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$224.87 -
$279.68
Company Quality Score
28/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
14.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TWLO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.3% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 10.7% above Wall St target ($263.04)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 16.9% growth expectation is conservative given 4672% recent growth
- WARNING: Composite score 28/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$224.87 -
$279.68
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$244.14
Resistance Level
$305.95
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
43.38
Wall Street Target
$263.04
(-10.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4671.5%
Profit Margin
20.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+16.9% premium
PE vs Historical
43.4 vs 27.1
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+16.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$344.36
(+17%)
2-Year Target
$402.56
(+37%)
3-Year Target
$470.59
(+60%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 43→27)
PE COMPRESSION
$293.98
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 43.4, Growth: 14.5%)
$442.50
(+50%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 14.5%)
$208.09
(-29%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 14.5%)
$176.88
(-40%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 40.33 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.47
Bull Case
$301.26
(+2%)
Analyst growth -9.1%, PE expands to 44.4
Base Case
$273.87
(-7%)
Market implied -9.1%, PE stable at 40.3
Bear Case
$204.86
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 10:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TWLO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Erika Rottenberg
SELL
1800 shares
2026-04-21
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Advanced TWLO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TWLO price and gamma walls.
