What is the fair value of TWLO stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for TWLO to be between $252.04 and $291.71. The current price is $261.50.

What is the analyst price target for TWLO?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for TWLO is $272.37. This implies a potential upside of 7.4% from current levels.

Twilio (TWLO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

TWLO - Twilio Inc.

SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE

$261.50

7.87 (3.10%) ▲

5d: +7.01%

30d: -12.73%

90d: +34.47%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 29, 2026 5d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 20, 2026 at $258.56 · last confirmed Oct 20, 2026

Strength: 7.9/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: TWLO is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 10.0% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 14.6%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$264.45

Based on 9.3% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$164.20

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: TWLO is currently trading at $261.50, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $252.04 to $291.71. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 37.3) compared to its historical average (28.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 10.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, TWLO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $236.85, while resistance sits at $293.66. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.

Market Sentiment: TWLO scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY LOW

Historical Trading Range $252.04 - $291.71

Company Quality Score 49/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 57.1%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (37/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.1%)
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($272.37)
NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 10.0% growth expectation is conservative given 4672% recent growth
WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $252.04 - $291.71

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY LOW

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $236.85

Resistance Level $293.66

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Oct 23, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 37.29

Wall Street Target $272.37 (+7.4%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 22.0%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 4671.5%

Profit Margin 20.6%

Valuation Premium vs History +10.0% premium

PE vs Historical 37.3 vs 28.0 STRETCHED

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +10.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $278.99 (+10%)

2-Year Target $306.89 (+21%)

3-Year Target $337.58 (+33%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 37→28) PE COMPRESSION $253.46 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 37.3, Growth: 14.6%) $382.13 (+51%)

Base: (SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 14.6%) $203.50 (-20%)

Bear: (PE: 16.9, Growth: 14.6%) $172.97 (-32%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

Trailing PE: 36.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.23

Bull Case $275.94 (+9%)

Analyst growth -5.9%, PE expands to 40.6

Base Case $250.86 (-1%)

Market implied -5.9%, PE stable at 36.9

Bear Case $181.34 (-29%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 31.4

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: October 23, 2026 2:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:44 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Advanced TWLO Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TWLO price and gamma walls.

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