AA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AA - Alcoa Corporation
$53.08
0.78 (1.49%)
▲
5d:
-14.01%
30d:
-28.82%
90d:
-9.57%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 25, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 16, 2026
20d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 10.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AA is down 14.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AA is down 14.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$81.85
Based on -0.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$50.82
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AA is currently trading at $53.08, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $59.75 to $76.37. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.2) compared to its historical average (11.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 14.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AA is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $51.22, while resistance sits at $70.13.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $82.25 (+57.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AA is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $51.22, while resistance sits at $70.13.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $82.25 (+57.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$59.75 -
$76.37
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 57.3% below Wall St target ($82.25)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -14.0% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$59.75 -
$76.37
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$51.22
Resistance Level
$70.13
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 25, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.17
Wall Street Target
$82.25
(+57.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-22.7%
Profit Margin
8.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-14.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.2 vs 11.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-14.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$47.07
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$42.36
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$38.13
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→12)
$61.18
(+17%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -4.9%)
$136.84
(+162%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.2, Growth: -4.9%)
$45.03
(-14%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.1, Growth: -4.9%)
$38.27
(-27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.12 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.90
Bull Case
$113.38
(+117%)
Analyst growth 87.1%, PE expands to 15.5
Base Case
$103.07
(+97%)
Market implied 87.1%, PE stable at 14.1
Bear Case
$37.45
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.2 to 11.5
Stabilization Target:
$83.93
(+60.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+60.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 25, 2026 3:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:56 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is AA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Michael T. McCaul
SELL
2026-01-13
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