AA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AA - Alcoa Corporation
$50.17
2.69 (5.67%)
▲
5d:
+10.85%
30d:
+2.98%
90d:
-19.91%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 7, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 15, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $50.17 · last confirmed Aug 7, 2026
Strength: 10.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$54.59
Based on -2.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$33.90
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AA is currently trading at $50.17, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $44.50 to $49.70. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.5) compared to its historical average (10.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 146.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AA is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $50.24. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: AA scores 23/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $62.98 (+25.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AA is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $50.24. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: AA scores 23/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $62.98 (+25.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$44.50 -
$49.70
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
33.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (23/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 25.5% below Wall St target ($62.98)
- WARNING: Composite score 39/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$44.50 -
$49.70
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$42.48
Resistance Level
$50.25
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 7, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.46
Wall Street Target
$62.98
(+25.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
31.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
146.8%
Profit Margin
9.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.5 vs 10.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$46.36
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$42.83
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$39.58
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→11)
$50.07
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -9.7%)
$88.39
(+76%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.5, Growth: -9.7%)
$36.95
(-26%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.2, Growth: -9.7%)
$31.41
(-37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.91 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.79
Bull Case
$64.68
(+29%)
Analyst growth 23.8%, PE expands to 10.9
Base Case
$58.80
(+17%)
Market implied 23.8%, PE stable at 9.9
Bear Case
$32.29
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.5 to 10.7
Stabilization Target:
$63.47
(+26.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+26.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 09, 2026 4:35 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:35 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:35 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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