CENX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CENX - Century Aluminum Co
$51.23
5.28 (11.49%)
▲
5d:
+14.43%
30d:
+13.57%
90d:
-15.43%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 7, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $51.23 · last confirmed Aug 7, 2026
Strength: 7.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CENX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CENX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$101.21
Based on 7.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$62.85
18.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CENX is currently trading at $51.23, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $43.31 to $46.92. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.7) compared to its historical average (6.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1009.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CENX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $52.74. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 11.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: CENX scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $74.00 (+44.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CENX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $52.74. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 11.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: CENX scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $74.00 (+44.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$43.31 -
$46.92
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
28.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CENX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+9.2% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (5/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+11.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 44.4% below Wall St target ($74.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$43.31 -
$46.92
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$41.95
Resistance Level
$52.74
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 7, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.70
Wall Street Target
$74.00
(+44.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1009.8%
Profit Margin
13.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.7 vs 6.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$46.26
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$41.77
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$37.72
(-26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→6)
$51.39
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 11.5%)
$305.83
(+497%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.7, Growth: 11.5%)
$71.02
(+39%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.0, Growth: 11.5%)
$60.37
(+18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.68 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.36
Bull Case
$101.09
(+97%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 15.0
Base Case
$91.90
(+79%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 13.7
Bear Case
$31.25
(-39%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.7 to 6.4
Stabilization Target:
$69.79
(+36.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+36.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 09, 2026 3:45 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:45 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:45 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CENX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jesse E Gary
SELL
150000 shares
2026-03-16
Robert F Hoffman
SELL
10529 shares
2026-03-11
Robert F Hoffman
SELL
10000 shares
2026-03-04
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