CENX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CENX - Century Aluminum Co
$43.94
-2.14 (-4.64%)
▼
5d:
-1.77%
30d:
-28.19%
90d:
-31.1%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
20d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CENX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 15.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CENX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 15.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$104.38
Based on 7.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$64.81
32.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CENX is currently trading at $43.94, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $43.44 to $56.13. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.0) compared to its historical average (6.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 15.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1009.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CENX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $42.62, while resistance sits at $47.35. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $74.00 (+68.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CENX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $42.62, while resistance sits at $47.35. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $74.00 (+68.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$43.44 -
$56.13
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 68.4% below Wall St target ($74.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$43.44 -
$56.13
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$42.62
Resistance Level
$47.35
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.03
Wall Street Target
$74.00
(+68.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1009.8%
Profit Margin
13.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-15.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.0 vs 6.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-15.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.55
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$35.59
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$32.03
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→7)
$52.47
(+19%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.0, Growth: 11.5%)
$317.62
(+623%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.0, Growth: 11.5%)
$60.91
(+39%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.4, Growth: 11.5%)
$51.78
(+18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.41
Bull Case
$101.38
(+131%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 14.9
Base Case
$92.16
(+110%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 13.5
Bear Case
$31.33
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.0 to 6.6
Stabilization Target:
$71.97
(+63.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+63.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 15, 2026 8:16 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:16 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CENX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jesse E Gary
SELL
150000 shares
2026-03-16
Robert F Hoffman
SELL
10529 shares
2026-03-11
Robert F Hoffman
SELL
10000 shares
2026-03-04
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