CENX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CENX - Century Aluminum Co
$45.96
1.46 (3.28%)
▲
5d:
-15.37%
30d:
-31.28%
90d:
-8.43%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 25, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
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Strength: 7.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: CENX is down 15.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: CENX is down 15.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$186.62
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$115.87
60.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CENX is currently trading at $45.96, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $52.19 to $66.06. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 3.2) compared to its historical average (7.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 22.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1009.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CENX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $43.29, while resistance sits at $61.95. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $78.67 (+76.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CENX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $43.29, while resistance sits at $61.95. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $78.67 (+76.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$52.19 -
$66.06
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CENX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 76.8% below Wall St target ($78.67)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -15.4% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$52.19 -
$66.06
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$43.29
Resistance Level
$61.95
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 25, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.25
Wall Street Target
$78.67
(+76.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1009.8%
Profit Margin
13.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-22.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.3 vs 7.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-22.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$40.05
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$36.05
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$32.44
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 3→7)
$69.86
(+57%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 25.9%)
$594.82
(+1237%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.3, Growth: 25.9%)
$88.77
(+100%)
Bear:
(PE: 2.8, Growth: 25.9%)
$75.46
(+70%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (3x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.09 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.36
Bull Case
$104.13
(+134%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 15.5
Base Case
$94.66
(+113%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 14.1
Bear Case
$32.18
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.3 to 7.0
Stabilization Target:
$95.83
(+115.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+115.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 25, 2026 3:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CENX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jesse E Gary
SELL
150000 shares
2026-03-16
Robert F Hoffman
SELL
10529 shares
2026-03-11
Robert F Hoffman
SELL
10000 shares
2026-03-04
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