Merck & (MRK) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$147.18
-0.87 (-0.59%)
âŧ
5d:
-2.11%
30d:
+3.66%
90d:
+8.58%
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70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
0d
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Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (64%)
Quality Score
50/100
Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
30-Day Fair Range
$142.49 â $148.42
Position: SLIGHTLY HIGH
Forward P/E & Valuation
16.4x
STRETCHED
vs 13.6x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$161.53
+9.7% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$142.80 / $153.37
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MRK is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 6.5% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$237.85
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$147.69
0.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MRK is currently trading at $147.18, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $142.49 to $148.42. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 16.4) compared to its historical average (13.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRK is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $142.80. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRK is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $142.80. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$142.49 -
$148.42
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.8%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$142.49 -
$148.42
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support Level
$142.80
Resistance Level
$153.37
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
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View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($161.53)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 6.5% growth with 4.7% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.39
Wall Street Target
$161.53
(+9.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-12.0%
Profit Margin
3.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.5% premium
PE vs Historical
16.4 vs 13.6
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$156.75
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$166.94
(+13%)
3-Year Target
$177.79
(+21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16â14)
PE COMPRESSION
$147.54
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 223.1%)
$601.97
(+309%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.4, Growth: 223.1%)
$496.73
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.6, Growth: 223.1%)
$412.23
(+180%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 16.39 | Forward EPS (Implied): $8.98
Bull Case
$177.72
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 17.2
Base Case
$147.18
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 16.4
Bear Case
$112.59
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 14.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (MRK)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 12, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
The latest article discusses how Merck's dividend, despite facing patent cliffs, can provide a steady income for retirees. The stock has a yield lower than the other two mentioned, but its dividend continues to grow.
Key Retail Themes:
Dividend income
Patent cliffs
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 1:37 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:37 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:37 AM
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Technical Signals Check
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
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Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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