Merck & (MRK) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MRK - Merck & Co., Inc.
$143.81
-1.50 (-1.03%)
▼
5d:
-2.82%
30d:
-4.04%
90d:
+11.0%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MRK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MRK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$245.75
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$152.59
5.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MRK is currently trading at $143.81, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $145.39 to $151.36. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 15.2) compared to its historical average (13.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRK is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $143.26. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRK is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $143.26. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$145.39 -
$151.36
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MRK? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (42/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($155.76)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 4.6% growth with 5.1% revenue growth
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (42/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$145.39 -
$151.36
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$143.26
Resistance Level
$153.57
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.16
Wall Street Target
$155.76
(+8.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-19.3%
Profit Margin
4.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.6% premium
PE vs Historical
15.2 vs 13.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$150.43
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$157.34
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$164.58
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$144.43
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 247.0%)
$653.28
(+354%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.2, Growth: 247.0%)
$485.36
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.9, Growth: 247.0%)
$412.55
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 15.29 | Forward EPS (Implied): $9.41
Bull Case
$173.65
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 16.1
Base Case
$143.81
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 15.3
Bear Case
$110.01
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 13.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 7:12 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:12 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:12 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MRK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced MRK Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MRK price and gamma walls.
