LLY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LLY - Eli Lilly & Co.
$1148.84
-6.13 (-0.53%)
▼
5d:
-3.95%
30d:
-3.6%
90d:
+22.92%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
2d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: LLY shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: LLY shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$2193.59
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1362.05
15.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LLY is currently trading at $1148.84, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1143.45 to $1214.67. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 25.5) is in line with its historical norms (26.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 169.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $1119.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1276.96 (+11.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $1119.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1276.96 (+11.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$1143.45 -
$1214.67
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($1276.96)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$1143.45 -
$1214.67
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$1119.00
Resistance Level
$1232.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.50
Wall Street Target
$1276.96
(+11.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
55.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
169.9%
Profit Margin
35.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
25.5 vs 26.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1138.50
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$1128.25
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$1118.10
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26→26)
$1148.93
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.5, Growth: 30.6%)
$2558.09
(+123%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 30.6%)
$2079.82
(+81%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 30.6%)
$1767.85
(+54%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (43x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (26x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 42.92 | Current EPS (TTM): $26.91
Bull Case
$2127.25
(+85%)
Analyst growth 67.4%, PE expands to 47.2
Base Case
$1933.87
(+68%)
Market implied 67.4%, PE stable at 42.9
Bear Case
$785.38
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 36.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 25.5 to 26.2
Stabilization Target:
$1180.51
(+2.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 5:23 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:23 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:23 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-03-13
David Taylor
BUY
2026-02-26
Angus S. King Jr.
SELL
2026-02-13
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