LLY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LLY - Eli Lilly & Co.
$1098.23
-3.85 (-0.35%)
▼
5d:
-2.76%
30d:
+5.43%
90d:
+20.61%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: LLY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: LLY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$2066.26
Based on 13.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1282.99
14.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LLY is currently trading at $1098.23, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1039.45 to $1137.21. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 24.8) is in line with its historical norms (26.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 169.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LLY is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $1088.65. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1218.72 (+10.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LLY is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $1088.65. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1218.72 (+10.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$1039.45 -
$1137.21
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($1218.72)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$1039.45 -
$1137.21
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$1088.66
Resistance Level
$1182.73
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.79
Wall Street Target
$1218.72
(+10.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
55.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
169.9%
Profit Margin
35.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
24.8 vs 26.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1082.24
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$1062.76
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$1043.63
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→26)
$1102.95
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.8, Growth: 22.8%)
$2039.50
(+85%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 22.8%)
$1791.81
(+63%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 22.8%)
$1523.04
(+38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (39x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 39.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $28.12
Bull Case
$1910.41
(+73%)
Analyst growth 58.1%, PE expands to 43.0
Base Case
$1736.74
(+58%)
Market implied 58.1%, PE stable at 39.1
Bear Case
$747.03
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 33.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 24.8 to 26.2
Stabilization Target:
$1164.72
(+5.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 11:05 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:05 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:05 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
4
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-03-13
David Taylor
BUY
2026-02-26
Angus S. King Jr.
SELL
2026-02-13
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