Eli Lilly & (LLY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LLY - Eli Lilly & Co.
$1149.85
-7.23 (-0.62%)
âŧ
5d:
-2.71%
30d:
-0.88%
90d:
-5.28%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: LLY is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -2.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: LLY is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -2.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$2312.95
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1436.16
19.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LLY is currently trading at $1149.85, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1132.54 to $1191.64. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 24.2) is in line with its historical norms (26.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 26.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LLY is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $1134.41. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1328.83 (+15.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LLY is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $1134.41. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1328.83 (+15.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$1132.54 -
$1191.64
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding LLY? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (50/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($1328.83)
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$1132.54 -
$1191.64
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$1134.41
Resistance Level
$1215.00
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.20
Wall Street Target
$1328.83
(+15.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
47.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
26.2%
Profit Margin
33.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
24.2 vs 26.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1123.40
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$1097.57
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$1072.32
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24â26)
$1151.96
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.2, Growth: 28.6%)
$2447.75
(+113%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 28.6%)
$2063.18
(+79%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 28.6%)
$1753.70
(+53%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 39.84 | Current EPS (TTM): $29.04
Bull Case
$2082.29
(+81%)
Analyst growth 63.6%, PE expands to 43.8
Base Case
$1892.99
(+65%)
Market implied 63.6%, PE stable at 39.8
Bear Case
$786.82
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 33.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 24.2 to 26.0
Stabilization Target:
$1235.25
(+7.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 7:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:06 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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