LLY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LLY - Eli Lilly & Co.
$1189.35
0.77 (0.06%)
▲
5d:
-0.89%
30d:
+4.66%
90d:
+26.6%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
22d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.3/10
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6 traders called LLY this week
92% bullish • 1 bearish
92% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: LLY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: LLY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$2073.10
Based on 13.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1287.23
7.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LLY is currently trading at $1189.35, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1117.59 to $1204.58. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 26.7) is in line with its historical norms (26.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $1166.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $1166.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$1117.59 -
$1204.58
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($1228.25)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$1117.59 -
$1204.58
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$1166.01
Resistance Level
$1249.45
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
26.71
Wall Street Target
$1228.25
(+3.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
55.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
169.9%
Profit Margin
35.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.6% premium
PE vs Historical
26.7 vs 26.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1195.71
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$1202.89
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$1210.10
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→26)
PE COMPRESSION
$1187.22
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 26.7, Growth: 22.9%)
$2207.49
(+86%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 22.9%)
$1800.38
(+52%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 22.9%)
$1530.32
(+29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (44x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 43.86 | Current EPS (TTM): $27.72
Bull Case
$2147.37
(+81%)
Analyst growth 60.6%, PE expands to 48.3
Base Case
$1952.16
(+64%)
Market implied 60.6%, PE stable at 43.9
Bear Case
$826.76
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 37.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 3:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:33 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-03-13
David Taylor
BUY
2026-02-26
Angus S. King Jr.
SELL
2026-02-13
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