Eli Lilly & (LLY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$1432.29
+20.34 (+1.44%)
▲
5d:
+1.63%
30d:
+21.11%
90d:
+17.37%
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70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
0d
Protect LLY Gains
Updated Nov 10, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (25%)
Quality Score
31/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$1186.69 – $1375.05
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
28.3x
FAIR
vs 26.0x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$1453.40
+1.5% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$1260.34 / $1453.00
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: LLY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 30, 2026 at $1417.54 · last confirmed Nov 9, 2026
Strength: 8.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$2460.44
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1527.74
6.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LLY is currently trading at $1432.29, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1186.69 to $1375.05. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 28.3) is in line with its historical norms (26.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LLY is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $1453.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: LLY scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LLY is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $1453.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: LLY scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$1186.69 -
$1375.05
Company Quality Score
31/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
24.8%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$1186.69 -
$1375.05
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$1260.34
Resistance Level
$1453.00
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding LLY? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (5/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($1453.40)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 31/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
28.34
Wall Street Target
$1453.40
(+1.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
38.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
16.3%
Profit Margin
31.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.9% premium
PE vs Historical
28.3 vs 26.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1473.83
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$1516.57
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$1560.55
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28→26)
PE COMPRESSION
$1431.68
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 28.3, Growth: 43.0%)
$4186.88
(+192%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 43.0%)
$2934.03
(+105%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 43.0%)
$2493.93
(+74%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (44x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (28x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 43.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $32.13
Bull Case
$2443.02
(+71%)
Analyst growth 57.3%, PE expands to 48.3
Base Case
$2220.93
(+55%)
Market implied 57.3%, PE stable at 43.9
Bear Case
$960.13
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 37.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (LLY)
Bearish
3 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
2 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 11, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Hims & Hers (HIMS) reported a surprise Q3 loss and cut its full-year profit outlook, leading to a steep stock decline. Revenue grew 48.6% YoY, but gross margin fell to 57% from 74% due to lower-margin branded weight-loss products and international growth.
Key Retail Themes:
earnings report
profit outlook
international growth
gross margin
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 8:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:24 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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LLY is a key holding in these high-performance investment strategies.
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