Is LLY stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, LLY is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: LLY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of LLY stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for LLY to be between $1140.45 and $1222.95. The current price is $1270.75.

What is the analyst price target for LLY?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for LLY is $1329.92. This implies a potential upside of 4.7% from current levels.

Eli Lilly & (LLY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

LLY - Eli Lilly & Co.

PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS

$1270.75

-12.91 (-1.01%) ▼

5d: +5.13%

30d: +8.6%

90d: +7.16%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your LLY Gains

Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 29, 2026 6d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 14, 2026 at $1208.74 · last confirmed Oct 19, 2026

Strength: 8.1/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: LLY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$2298.35

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$1427.10

11.0% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: LLY is currently trading at $1270.75, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1140.45 to $1222.95. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 26.9) is in line with its historical norms (25.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, LLY is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $1131.21, while resistance sits at $1311.75.

Market Sentiment: LLY scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $1140.45 - $1222.95

Company Quality Score 36/100 (SELL)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 24.8%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (5/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($1329.92)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $1140.45 - $1222.95

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $1131.21

Resistance Level $1311.75

Current Trend Downtrend

Technical data as of Oct 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 26.92

Wall Street Target $1329.92 (+4.7%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 47.7%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 26.2%

Profit Margin 33.5%

Valuation Premium vs History +1.3% premium

PE vs Historical 26.9 vs 25.9 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +1.3% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $1287.27 (+1%)

2-Year Target $1304.00 (+3%)

3-Year Target $1320.96 (+4%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 27→26) PE COMPRESSION $1271.04 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 26.9, Growth: 35.3%) $3146.41 (+148%)

Base: (SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 35.3%) $2321.49 (+83%)

Bear: (PE: 16.9, Growth: 35.3%) $1973.26 (+55%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (43x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 43.09 | Current EPS (TTM): $29.79

Bull Case $2237.71 (+76%)

Analyst growth 58.5%, PE expands to 47.4

Base Case $2034.28 (+60%)

Market implied 58.5%, PE stable at 43.1

Bear Case $872.89 (-31%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 36.6

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: October 22, 2026 8:47 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:47 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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