Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$2304.23
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1430.74
12.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
Valuation Analysis: LLY is currently trading at $1255.40, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1151.80 to $1226.11. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 26.5) is in line with its historical norms (26.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $1292.65. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: LLY scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$1151.80 -
$1226.11
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
24.8%
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Eli Lilly is a drug firm with a focus on neuroscience, cardiometabolic, cancer, and immunology. Lilly's key products include Verzenio for cancer; Mounjaro, Zepbound, Jardiance, Trulicity, Humalog, and Humulin for cardiometabolic; and Taltz and Olumiant for immunology.
