Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$2300.58
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1428.48
21.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
Valuation Analysis: LLY is currently trading at $1123.00, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1141.69 to $1230.28. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 23.8) is in line with its historical norms (26.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 26.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $1113.55. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: LLY scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1315.56 (+17.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$1141.69 -
$1230.28
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
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Holding LLY? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
Eli Lilly is a drug firm with a focus on neuroscience, cardiometabolic, cancer, and immunology. Lilly's key products include Verzenio for cancer; Mounjaro, Zepbound, Jardiance, Trulicity, Humalog, and Humulin for cardiometabolic; and Taltz and Olumiant for immunology.
