Amgen (AMGN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMGN - Amgen Inc
$403.04
-4.23 (-1.04%)
▼
5d:
-2.79%
30d:
-8.99%
90d:
+9.99%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AMGN is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: AMGN is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$486.72
Based on 5.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$302.22
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMGN is currently trading at $403.04, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $387.84 to $435.26. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.5) is in line with its historical norms (15.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMGN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $381.90, while resistance sits at $426.59.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMGN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $381.90, while resistance sits at $426.59.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$387.84 -
$435.26
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AMGN? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (49/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($390.94)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (49/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$387.84 -
$435.26
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$381.90
Resistance Level
$426.59
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.48
Wall Street Target
$390.94
(-3.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
64.9%
Profit Margin
22.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.9% premium
PE vs Historical
16.5 vs 15.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$410.70
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$418.50
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$426.45
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$403.56
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 6.0%)
$594.76
(+48%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.5, Growth: 6.0%)
$480.61
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.0, Growth: 6.0%)
$408.52
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.17 | Current EPS (TTM): $15.56
Bull Case
$703.93
(+75%)
Analyst growth 57.1%, PE expands to 28.8
Base Case
$639.93
(+59%)
Market implied 57.1%, PE stable at 26.2
Bear Case
$276.94
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 04, 2026 9:05 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:05 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:05 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMGN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced AMGN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AMGN price and gamma walls.
