Amgen (AMGN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMGN - Amgen Inc
$377.35
-5.12 (-1.34%)
▼
5d:
-15.03%
30d:
-9.33%
90d:
+6.58%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $437.23 · last confirmed Sep 11, 2026
Strength: 8.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AMGN is down 15.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AMGN is down 15.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$481.55
Based on 5.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$299.00
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMGN is currently trading at $377.35, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $398.55 to $440.46. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.5) is in line with its historical norms (15.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 64.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMGN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $377.22. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AMGN scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMGN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $377.22. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AMGN scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$398.55 -
$440.46
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AMGN? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($388.03)
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$398.55 -
$440.46
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$377.22
Resistance Level
$445.82
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.46
Wall Street Target
$388.03
(+2.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
64.9%
Profit Margin
22.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.5 vs 15.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$376.97
(0%)
2-Year Target
$376.60
(0%)
3-Year Target
$376.22
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$377.11
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 5.9%)
$584.68
(+55%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.5, Growth: 5.9%)
$448.25
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.1, Growth: 5.9%)
$381.01
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.33 | Current EPS (TTM): $15.72
Bull Case
$653.10
(+73%)
Analyst growth 55.2%, PE expands to 26.8
Base Case
$593.73
(+57%)
Market implied 55.2%, PE stable at 24.3
Bear Case
$260.08
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.5 to 15.5
Stabilization Target:
$378.24
(+0.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 14, 2026 12:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:30 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:30 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMGN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Maria Elvira Salazar
BUY
2026-03-24
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Advanced AMGN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AMGN price and gamma walls.
