AU Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AU - AngloGold Ashanti plc
$81.61
2.29 (2.89%)
▲
5d:
+1.4%
30d:
-3.59%
90d:
-12.02%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 07, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AU appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -7.0% annual earnings decline despite 50% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AU appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -7.0% annual earnings decline despite 50% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$172.06
Based on 11.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$106.84
23.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AU is currently trading at $81.61, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $77.99 to $82.36. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.2) compared to its historical average (10.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 50.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AU is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $83.24. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AU has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $114.12 (+39.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AU is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $83.24. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AU has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $114.12 (+39.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$77.99 -
$82.36
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 39.8% below Wall St target ($114.12)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$77.99 -
$82.36
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$73.40
Resistance Level
$83.24
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.16
Wall Street Target
$114.13
(+39.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
27.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
50.1%
Profit Margin
32.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.2 vs 10.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$75.90
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$70.58
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$65.64
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$81.29
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 18.7%)
$346.92
(+325%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.2, Growth: 18.7%)
$136.49
(+67%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.9, Growth: 18.7%)
$116.01
(+42%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.63 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.46
Bull Case
$117.03
(+43%)
Analyst growth 34.1%, PE expands to 11.7
Base Case
$106.40
(+30%)
Market implied 34.1%, PE stable at 10.6
Bear Case
$53.94
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.2 to 10.1
Stabilization Target:
$101.06
(+23.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+23.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 7:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:11 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AU showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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