CF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CF - CF Industries Holding, Inc.
$116.60
3.12 (2.75%)
▲
5d:
+0.22%
30d:
-7.38%
90d:
+11.36%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 10.0/10
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4 traders called CF this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$50.37
Based on -17.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.27
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CF is currently trading at $116.60, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $116.72 to $126.43. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.4) compared to its historical average (12.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 115.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CF is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $111.27, while resistance sits at $128.78.
Market Sentiment: CF has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CF is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $111.27, while resistance sits at $128.78.
Market Sentiment: CF has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$116.72 -
$126.43
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($126.53)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$116.72 -
$126.43
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$111.27
Resistance Level
$128.78
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.45
Wall Street Target
$126.53
(+8.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
115.1%
Profit Margin
23.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.5 vs 12.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$108.90
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$101.72
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$95.00
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→13)
$116.36
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: -38.8%)
$178.21
(+53%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.5, Growth: -38.8%)
$85.00
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.9, Growth: -38.8%)
$72.25
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.10
Bull Case
$127.49
(+9%)
Analyst growth -0.4%, PE expands to 11.5
Base Case
$115.90
(-1%)
Market implied -0.4%, PE stable at 10.5
Bear Case
$79.11
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.5 to 12.8
Stabilization Target:
$142.81
(+22.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 5:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:07 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:07 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
15
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Erik M Mayer
SELL
1500 shares
2026-03-17
Richard A Hoker
SELL
3499 shares
2026-03-17
Bert A Frost
SELL
6000 shares
2026-03-17
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