SMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMG - The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
$65.68
-2.63 (-3.85%)
▼
5d:
-5.24%
30d:
-4.21%
90d:
+4.75%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SMG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SMG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$86.21
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$53.53
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMG is currently trading at $65.68, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $65.29 to $70.58. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.8) is in line with its historical norms (13.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMG is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $65.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $77.00 (+17.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMG is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $65.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $77.00 (+17.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$65.29 -
$70.58
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($77.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.1% growth with -1.3% revenue growth
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.2% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$65.29 -
$70.58
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$65.53
Resistance Level
$73.41
Current Trend
Support Break
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.78
Wall Street Target
$77.00
(+17.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-25.4%
Profit Margin
2.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.1% premium
PE vs Historical
13.8 vs 13.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$66.40
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$67.13
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$67.87
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$65.98
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 8.4%)
$125.98
(+92%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.8, Growth: 8.4%)
$83.77
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.7, Growth: 8.4%)
$71.21
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.11 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.72
Bull Case
$131.63
(+100%)
Analyst growth 75.2%, PE expands to 27.6
Base Case
$119.66
(+82%)
Market implied 75.2%, PE stable at 25.1
Bear Case
$46.45
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 1:33 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:33 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:33 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Mark J Scheiwer
BUY
693 shares
2026-02-24
Hagedorn Partnership, L.…
SELL
50000 shares
2026-02-12
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