SMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMG - The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
$56.97
0.55 (0.97%)
▲
5d:
-6.81%
30d:
-4.07%
90d:
-17.35%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SMG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SMG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$84.48
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$52.46
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMG is currently trading at $56.97, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $57.90 to $63.60. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.0) is in line with its historical norms (13.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 8.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMG is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $53.60, while resistance sits at $62.07.
Market Sentiment: SMG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $74.00 (+29.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMG is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $53.60, while resistance sits at $62.07.
Market Sentiment: SMG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $74.00 (+29.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$57.90 -
$63.60
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.9% below Wall St target ($74.00)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-6.8%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$57.90 -
$63.60
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$53.60
Resistance Level
$62.07
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.02
Wall Street Target
$74.00
(+29.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.5%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.0 vs 13.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$55.26
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$53.60
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$51.99
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$57.11
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 8.4%)
$132.30
(+132%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.0, Growth: 8.4%)
$72.57
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.2, Growth: 8.4%)
$61.68
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.48
Bull Case
$91.59
(+51%)
Analyst growth 36.2%, PE expands to 19.3
Base Case
$83.27
(+38%)
Market implied 36.2%, PE stable at 17.6
Bear Case
$41.57
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.0 to 13.2
Stabilization Target:
$62.57
(+9.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 5:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:07 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:07 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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BUY
693 shares
2026-02-24
Hagedorn Partnership, L.…
SELL
50000 shares
2026-02-12
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