FMX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FMX - FOMENTO ECONOMICO MEXICANO, S.A.B. DE C.V.
$124.90
-3.09 (-2.41%)
▼
5d:
-5.49%
30d:
-3.4%
90d:
+4.11%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FMX is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: FMX is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$109.25
Based on -1.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$67.84
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FMX is currently trading at $124.90, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $126.10 to $130.82. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 24.3) is in line with its historical norms (22.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $120.76, while resistance sits at $141.47.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $120.76, while resistance sits at $141.47.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$126.10 -
$130.82
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($131.09)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.5% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$126.10 -
$130.82
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$120.76
Resistance Level
$141.47
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.29
Wall Street Target
$131.09
(+2.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
108.4%
Profit Margin
3.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.1% premium
PE vs Historical
24.3 vs 22.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$130.68
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$133.42
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$136.22
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→23)
PE COMPRESSION
$127.89
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.3, Growth: -7.6%)
$101.04
(+-21%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: -7.6%)
$86.25
(-33%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: -7.6%)
$73.31
(-43%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 24.19 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.24
Bull Case
$140.24
(+10%)
Analyst growth 0.6%, PE expands to 26.6
Base Case
$127.49
(0%)
Market implied 0.6%, PE stable at 24.2
Bear Case
$86.20
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 1:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:44 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FMX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Garza Alfonso Garza
SELL
52311 shares
2026-03-27
Garza Alfonso Garza
SELL
52316 shares
2026-03-25
Garza Alfonso Garza
SELL
52316 shares
2026-03-23
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