SAM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SAM - Boston Beer Company
$163.76
1.32 (0.81%)
▲
5d:
-10.73%
30d:
-20.95%
90d:
-29.48%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: SAM is down 10.7% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: SAM is down 10.7% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$347.63
Based on 10.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$215.85
24.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SAM is currently trading at $163.76, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $170.23 to $215.88. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.8) compared to its historical average (19.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 48.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAM is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $162.31. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $230.39 (+40.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAM is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $162.31. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $230.39 (+40.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$170.23 -
$215.88
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 40.7% below Wall St target ($230.39)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -10.7% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$170.23 -
$215.88
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$162.31
Resistance Level
$190.59
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.77
Wall Street Target
$230.39
(+40.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
48.6%
Profit Margin
-3.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.8 vs 19.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$149.35
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$136.21
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$124.22
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→20)
$163.98
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 16.1%)
$379.84
(+132%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.8, Growth: 16.1%)
$256.09
(+56%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.6, Growth: 16.1%)
$217.67
(+33%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.8 to 19.5
Stabilization Target:
$216.18
(+32.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+32.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 6:24 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:24 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:24 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SAM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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